Sara Commander Sotos |
Madrid (EFE) The fact that it fell during the holiday period could lead to the immobilization of the electorate, but who would benefit from abstention? To the right or to the left?
One of the great electoral clichés is that a high abstention rate demobilizes the left and favors the conformation of a right-wing majority. How much truth is there in that topic?
Socialist majorities with high percentages of participation
Great victories for the PSOE in Spain, such as that of Felipe González in 1982 or that of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero in 2004, have occurred in elections with high participation and with abstention rates below 25%: 20.03% in 1982 and 24.34% in 2004.
Despite this, there have also been moments in the history of Spanish democracy in which the PP has won the elections with low levels of abstention. It happened in 1996, when Aznar arrived at Moncloa with a 22.62% abstention rate.
PP victories with high levels of abstention
It is true that the trend in the last 22 years has been to see PP victories with abstention levels above 30%.
In fact, on April 28, 2019, when the PSOE won the general elections, the abstention rate decreased compared to previous years. A participation of 71.76% was reached.
However, in the electoral repetition of November of that same year, in which the Socialists also won, there was the highest abstention figure in the historical series: 33.77%.
The director of Public Opinion and Political Studies of Ipsos, José Pablo Ferrándiz, contributes an aspect that helps to understand this exceptionality, in statements to EFE: “In that electoral repetition there was a practically identical demobilization of the electorate of the left and of the electorate of the right” .
And he adds: “Something totally strange is that there was a tie between the two blocks at approximately 11 million votes.” The political scientist attributes the socialist victory with low participation to the fact that both blocks were demobilized.
Peaks of participation: change of cycle
So, what is true in this topic? If we take a look at the data, we can affirm that the Socialist Party has obtained more victories with low abstention than the Popular Party. Even so, it is not something that is repeated always. What seems to be clear is that there are spikes in participation when there is a change in the cycle.
For example, in 1996 when the PP won after 14 years of government of Felipe González, there was an abstention rate of 21.92%. Something similar happened in 2004, when José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero arrived at Moncloa with an abstention rate of 22.74%.
“Usually, the right obtains better results when there is a demobilization than the left,” says Ferrandiz, “especially when there are governments of the left, which is hypermobilized.”
What can we expect in the 23J elections?
The elections on July 23 are somewhat special because they coincide with the holidays for a large number of Spaniards called to vote.
Most of the surveys point to the change in the political cycle and, although this usually occurs accompanied by a large turnout, Ferrándiz expects the percentage of participation to be similar to that of November 2019.
“It would be a change election with low turnout or moderate turnout.” The political scientist explains that they estimate that the percentage of participation is around 70%, below the average.
Is there a history of changing the cycle with low participation? In 2011, with 31.06% abstention, the PP was victorious, after two legislatures of the PSOE. Even so, the context of both elections is radically different. In 2011, what led part of the progressive electorate to stay at home was the economic crisis.
Currently, quite the opposite. “Citizens consider that their personal economy is fine, nothing to do with 2011,” says Ferrándiz, who explains that now it is not the economy, but other motivations, which play a relevant role in the campaign. “It has to do above all with a certain disaffection of an important part of the PSOE electorate with the current government,” he settles.
As explained by the director of Public Opinion and Political Studies at Ipsos, these are reasons related to the question of identity: “The moment you mention the issue of Catalonia, the change in the secession law, the pardon for Catalan politicians, that’s when you detect that it is the reason”.
Is the left demobilized?
In the regional elections of May 28, a demobilization of the PSOE electorate was detected and a transfer of the vote from the alternative left to the socialist candidacies.
“What we are seeing now is that the mobilization of the alternative left continues to be high”, comments José Pablo Ferrandiz. According to the expert, it is the center-left, which would correspond to the traditional voter of the PSOE, who is demobilized.