Oviedo (EFE).- Asturian economists have improved their confidence in the evolution of the Principality’s economy in the last year, but their vision is still “slightly pessimistic”, and they warn that the price of energy, the situation of the infrastructures and communications and the fiscal pressure are the factors that condition the competitiveness of the community.
This is reflected in the report “Económetro 2023”, prepared by the College of Economists of Asturias together with the University of Oviedo and sponsored by Caja Rural, in which 308 professionals have participated through a survey carried out between March 1 and April 17th.
The study shows a Confidence Index of -12.99 points (on a scale of -100 to 100), which is an improvement compared to -25.59 a year ago and a level similar to that of two years ago, with -12.43.
In addition, it reflects a clear improvement compared to -43.79 points in 2020, a year that was marked by the partial paralysis of the economy due to the covid-19 pandemic.
Despite this improvement, the indicator is still below pre-pandemic levels, since in 2019, the last year before the health crisis, it registered -6.96 points.
The survey shows that expectations are optimistic when referring to their personal economic situation, since 57.8% maintain that their situation is the same or better than twelve months ago.
In the same line of optimism, two out of three estimate that this situation will be the same or better within a year, which denotes that the consequences of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the increase in inflation “have not been felt especially” in your situation.
Greater pessimism about economic developments
On the other hand, they are not equally optimistic regarding the economic situation in Asturias, since 63.7% affirm that it has worsened compared to a year ago, while 54.5% believe that it will worsen over the next.
“There is more pessimism regarding the evolution of the Asturian economy than the particular situation of professionals,” said the president of the Association of Economists of Asturias, Abel Fernández, at the press conference to present the document.
The expectation of saving at home for the next year improves compared to 2022, given that almost one in two Asturian economists agrees that it will be possible to save at home, and there are also improvements in relation to unemployment, since it is has reduced the percentage of those who believe that unemployment will increase in 2023.
Factors that hinder competitiveness
Regarding the factors that condition the competitiveness of the Asturian economy, 65.9% continue pointing out that the price of energy is one of them, in addition to the situation of infrastructures and communications and the differences that exist in tax pressure in the different communities.
In this edition, those surveyed have been asked about the economic policy measures to combat inflation and the results indicate that there is no consensus on which is the most effective to contain the rise in prices.
22.1% indicate the decrease in tax burdens on companies, followed by increasing competition in the energy sector (18.2%), promoting an income pact (17.9%), continuing with a restrictive monetary policy ( 14.2%) and lower indirect taxes on basic consumer products (12.3%).
As for the monetary policy forecasts of the European Central Bank, 46.4% believe that this body will approve new one-off rate hikes, although more moderate than those of recent months, although 30.8% believe that it will continue raising them at the same rate as last year.
European funds aimed at SMEs
Almost half believe that the energy investments planned in the community are likely to be the boost the industrial sector needs to recover its traditional weight in economic activity and employment in the region.
In relation to the priority investment objectives charged to the European recovery funds, three out of four establish that it should be support for the recovery of the Asturian business fabric, especially SMEs.
Finally, the report points out that 62.7% of the participants believe that Asturian consumers are not likely to be willing to pay higher prices in exchange for consuming products made under environmental sustainability standards.
The coordinator of the report, Santiago Álvarez, has indicated that the data reflects that there is “greater confidence” that the evolution of the economy “will be better in the future” than what it was in the previous year, although the figures are far from those registered in 2019. EFE