Geneva (EFE)
The organization’s experts forecast that the average annual temperature near the Earth’s surface could rise, temporarily, more than 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels between 2023 and 2027.
According to the calculations used, there is a 66% probability that in that period the bar of the additional 1.5 degrees will be broken for at least one year.
Likewise, there is a 98% chance that at least one of the next five years, as well as the five years as a whole, will be the hottest ever recorded.
“This does not mean that we are going to permanently exceed the level of 1.5 degrees foreseen in the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming. However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will temporarily exceed the 1.5 degree level and with increasing frequency,” said WMO Secretary General Petteri Taalas.
The Finnish expert warned that this increase in temperatures in the short term “will have repercussions on people’s health, food safety, water management and the environment”, for which he asked “to be prepared”.
More heat in the Arctic and less rain in the Amazon
Although the increase in temperatures will be widespread and will affect all continents, the WMO -a United Nations scientific body- predicts that this increase will be greater around the Arctic.
In the extreme north of the Earth, the thermal anomaly could mean an increase in temperatures three times greater than in the rest of the world.
In general, the planet could have to support, at some very particular moments, temperatures up to 1.8 degrees higher than the average for the period 1850-1900, used as a reference because it precedes the emission of greenhouse gases from activities human and industrial.
The hottest year on record was 2016 – when there was a very intense El Niño phenomenon – but WMO forecasts indicate that it is very likely that this level could be exceeded before 2027.
On the other hand, the WMO predicts that the rains may be more intense in the Sahel region, in northern Europe, in Alaska and in northern Siberia.
Instead, drier conditions are forecast in parts of the Amazon, Central America, Indonesia and Australia.
Part of this increase is explained by the imminent start of the El Niño phenomenon, which causes an increase in global temperatures and intense rains or droughts in some areas of Latin America, Africa and South Asia.
The WMO recently estimated that El Niño could begin to manifest itself in the coming months, coinciding with the southern winter and the northern hemisphere summer.