Oscar R. Window |
Valladolid (EFE).- Castilla y León will experience an unprecedented circumstance in its regional history on May 28: the election of its councilors and mayors will take place in isolation, without other ballot boxes next to it, as happened last 2021 with the autonomous ones that brought about the first PP-Vox autonomous pact, but in this case with the proximity that voting gives to one of its neighbors, which will draw a political map that is difficult to analyze jointly. Despite this, these are some of the keys to 28M.
The starting point for the comparison will be what happened in 2019, when the PP managed to remain the party with the most votes in the municipal elections in Castilla y León, although with a significant drop in support that left the overall difference with the PSOE at 28,000 votes. -in 2015 it was about 138,000 votes-, and also with a distribution of the provincial capitals favorable to the Socialists.
Two percentage points separated the PP and PSOE in the municipal elections, which was also reflected in the regional elections, when for the first time in decades the Socialists were once again the leading force (35 attorneys against 29 for the PP), but not translated into the autonomous government after the pact between the PP and Cs.
Now the panorama has changed, with a Cs practically consumed and with Vox as a candidate to access more municipalities, especially in the most populated capitals and municipalities, as a replica of the results harvested last 2021 in the regional elections, which placed them in the Government of Castilla y León through its pact with the PP.
It remains to be seen whether the perception of the voters of this coalition between the PP and Vox, seen throughout the country as an example of what can happen in other autonomies and municipalities, even at the national level with the General Elections already in sight in this 2023, influences or not the municipal elections, so it can become another of the keys of 28M.
The PSOE the urban, the PP the rural
Most of the citizens of Castilla y León have a socialist mayor, which occurs in the cities of Valladolid, León, Burgos, Segovia and Soria; while the rest are shared by the PP (Salamanca), IU (Zamora), Cs (Palencia) and Por Ávila (Ávila), although only two of them achieved an absolute majority, the socialist Carlos Martínez in Soria and the IU leader Francisco Lair in Zamora, the latter one of the biggest surprises of the 2019 elections nationwide.
Now, socialist sources assume that they will maintain the capitals in which they govern, with or without pacts, and hope to repeat their 2019 victory in Palencia, where finally their candidate Miriam Andrés -repeats now- was left without a baton when she reached an agreement between the Cs and the PP, which this Mayor’s Office handed over to Mario Simón (Cs) despite the fact that the oranges only had 3 councillors, within the pact at the regional level that, in exchange, gave the Presidency of the Board to Alfonso Fernández Mañueco.
Also linked to that PP-Cs autonomous pact, although in the opposite direction, the municipal government was forged in Salamanca, where for the first time in decades the PP had to share management departments, in this case with Cs, while now Vox is the that seeks to obtain a representation that allows him to access the Salamanca consistory.
In the case of the small municipalities, the fact that the PP has presented candidacies in almost all of them implies that, from the start, the popular ones have all those mayoralties where only they attend, which serves as a trend in many of the towns of smaller size of the Community.
The Provincial Councils
Precisely getting councilors who do not seem to count in a council dominated by their respective rival, mainly PP and PSOE, is important when it comes to gaining strength in the Provincial Councils, key in the organization and management of municipalities and which are always raised as ‘political battles’ at the height of the achievement of the provincial capitals and the most populated municipalities.
Currently the PP maintains the Presidency of seven of the nine provincial councils, all except Zamora, where it ceded it to the only Cs deputy until a few weeks ago, José Requejo – who has just founded a new party to compete for the mayor’s office of the capital- , in exchange for the support of the oranges for the Government chaired by Mañueco and that of León, where the socialist Eduardo Morán remains in charge with the support of the UPL.
The Zamora formula, through which a minority party in principle takes over the Presidency, has given rise to much talk in this legislature and precisely opens a way for Vox, especially in Valladolid, and UPL in León, to speak openly about what they can use their votes in other institutions such as the city councils of the capitals to request as consideration the direction of the Diputación, and all that this implies, especially in the economic section, which becomes another of the keys of the 28M.
And after 28M what?
The result of the 28M and the different readings that the parties will carry out will leave a stage open for the general elections, but it will also open a new stage in the coalition government between the PP and Vox, who maintain their unity, but who will have to go through the proof that the foreseeable negotiations between the two formations in other institutions will mean.
In 2015, this occurred jointly and Cs maneuvered to seize part of the municipal power in exchange for the regional power.
It remains to be seen to what extent Vox will stress that ace up its sleeve, both at the regional level and in other municipal institutions, with an eye especially on the province and the capital of Valladolid, as recognized by the leader of the training in this Community and vice president of the Board, Juan García-Gallardo, in a recent interview with EFE.
And another of the keys of the 28M will be that there will be almost no time to breathe in the face of the new pre-campaign, that of the generals. Another new test of strength for the main parties, accustomed in recent years to veritable rally marathons and changes in scenarios that have become unpredictable, with the emergence of parties, the disappearance of others, and twists such as the pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine. , which have marked the day to day of current societies in the things ‘of eating’. EFE