Sara Commander Sotos |
Madrid (EFE).- The latest report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveals that this phenomenon is advancing with increasing speed and intensity and that the impacts and risks are being appreciated ahead of time.
The document, prepared by 93 authors, is especially important because it is the first framed in the commitments of the Paris Agreement (2016). And, although time is short, it seems that the goal of not exceeding a 1.5 degree increase in global temperature can still be reached.
As? Implementing some measures urgently. The first of these, that of halving carbon emissions by 2030.
It also points to fossil fuels: it is proposed to prevent the granting of new licenses to exploit this type of resource. The currently existing infrastructure is already excessive and the IPCC is committed to gradually abandoning them.
His document emphasizes equity and social inclusion, and points out that investment must be increased to mitigate the effects of climate change and join efforts to meet the needs of societies with less responsibility for the climate crisis.
1. Average global warming, on the way to 3 degrees
In the last century the global temperature has risen 1.1 degrees compared to pre-industrial times (1850-1900). Experts warn that it will increase 2.8 degrees if the current emission reduction commitments do not improve.
What would happen if it kept increasing? With a rise of 1.2 degrees, many ecosystems are already at high risk of disappearing: forests, coral reefs, marine life… More people also die due to heat waves.
If 1.5 degrees are reached – a level that the Paris Agreement recommends not to exceed, and that in any case not exceed 2 degrees – there will be even more heat waves, extreme rainfall, floods, tropical cyclones or fires.
The report states that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees instead of 2 will at least reduce the impact on terrestrial and marine ecosystems: a warming of between 2ºC and 3ºC would make the Greenland ice sheets and Antarctica were almost completely lost irreversibly.
2. Increasingly visible effects
Global warming will have a cascading effect through which natural catastrophes will increase -heat waves, torrential rains, fires…-, and that will cause more deaths from high temperatures and more contagious diseases.
To this we must add the loss of biodiversity and the decline in agricultural production in some regions. In fact, between 2010 and 2020, mortality from floods, droughts, and storms was 15 times higher in highly vulnerable regions, compared to regions with very low vulnerability.
The IPCC report also warns that sea level rise, one of the effects of global warming and a possible source of ecological and humanitarian disasters, is “inevitable for the next centuries or millennia.”
“In the next 2,000 years the average sea level will rise between two and three meters if global warming is limited to 1.5 degrees, and it will reach between two and six meters if it does not exceed 2 degrees,” the study indicates.
The global mean sea level rose 20 centimeters between 1901 and 2018, but the rise is accelerating due to climate change: it was 1.3 millimeters per year until the 1970s, between 1971 and 2006 it rose to 1.9 millimeters per year. anus. From 2006 to 2018 it already rises to 3.7 millimeters per year.
3. The climate crisis does not affect everyone equally
The impacts of the climate crisis vary in magnitude depending on geographic location, levels of development, and the choices made in terms of implementing adaptation and mitigation options.
The richest 10% produce 45% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Between 3.3 and 3.6 billion people, more than 40% of the global population, live in places highly vulnerable to the consequences. For this reason, the report insists on social justice and equity.
1. Cut emissions
Current concentrations of carbon dioxide, the main gas contributing to global warming, are the highest in the last 2 million years.
The report warns that the world has emitted since 1850 80% of the carbon dioxide it can afford to achieve limiting climate change to 1.5 degrees.
If urgent action is taken, the goal of the Paris Agreement can be achieved. This would require halving global emissions by 2030, reaching net zero CO2 emissions around 2050, and achieving net negative CO2 emissions thereafter.
2. Farewell to fossil fuels
Halting the expansion of fossil fuels is an imperative, according to the IPCC study: the existing infrastructure is enough to exceed the 1.5ºC limit. According to the report, about 80% of coal reserves, 50% of gas and 30% of oil will not be able to be burned or emitted if warming is limited to 2°C. If warming is limited to 1.5°C, many more reserves must go unburned.
In the field of transport, it recommends sustainable biofuels, the development of other fuels under study such as those derived from hydrogen and electric vehicles, at a time when the cost of lithium batteries has also been reduced (85%). .
3. Hello, renewable energy
The study recommends the adoption of alternative energies such as solar or wind, noting that the cost of these has decreased thanks to research (85% and 55%, respectively), so there are even cases in which maintaining systems of high emissions could be “more expensive than the transition to low emissions”.
The greatest contributions will come from solar and wind energy, the protection and restoration of forests and other ecosystems, climate-friendly food systems, and energy efficiency in its many forms.
In addition to the transition towards renewable energy, the IPCC also stresses that, for the conservation of biodiversity and human health, it is necessary to move towards “healthy and sustainable diets”.