Washington, (EFE).- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) calculates that the Spanish economy will grow 1.5% this year, four tenths more than previously projected, with which it will almost double the average for the euro zone and will it will become the main driving force among the large European countries.
In its new economic outlook report, published within the framework of the spring meeting held by the institution this week in Washington, the Fund nevertheless reduces the expected growth for Spain in 2024 by four tenths, to 2%.
Both figures are clearly above the average for the euro zone, which will grow 0.8% this year (one tenth more than the forecasts made in January) and 1.4% next year (two tenths less).
The calculations of the organization led by Kristalina Georgieva are in line with the projections of the Bank of Spain, which in its latest estimates place growth in Spain at 1.6% by 2023, although far from the forecasts of the Spanish Government, which is much more optimistic and forecasts growth of 2.3% this year.
However, all these figures are below the world average, which the IMF calculates at 2.8%, in a context of sharp slowdown in the most developed economies (1.3% in 2023), offset by the growth of the emerging ones (3.9%).
The IMF report also estimates the evolution of inflation, which in Spain will drop progressively from 8.3% in 2022 to 4.3% this year, while in 2024 it will drop to 3.2%.
However, the interest rate hikes carried out by the European Central Bank are not expected to have negative effects on the Spanish labor market and unemployment will continue on its downward path.
According to the Fund, it will fall three tenths in 2023 compared to 2022, to 12.6%, and two tenths more next year (to 12.4%). Both figures are still well above the average forecast for the euro area, which will be 6.8% for both this year and next.
Poor growth for the eurozone
The IMF points to three reasons for the low growth of regions such as Europe (the eurozone will grow 0.8% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024): Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the outbreak of contagious variants of covid and the tightening of financial conditions.
To reduce inflation, the European Central Bank has raised rates six times since July 2022 and today they stand at 3.5%, the highest rate since 2008.
A policy that will continue for the next few months -estimates and recommends the IMF- and that will cause regions like the eurozone to register very poor growth figures in the coming years.
The low growth is driven by the fact that the main economy, Germany, will decrease by 0.1% in 2023, according to the IMF, which reduces its previous estimate for the country by two tenths. In 2024, it will grow 1.1%, three tenths less than what was calculated in January.
The IMF maintained its growth forecast for France for this year at 0.7%, while it lowered that of 2024 by three tenths, to 1.3%.
In the case of Italy, this year’s rose one tenth, to 0.7%, while that of 2024 fell one tenth, to 0.8%.
For the United Kingdom, forecasts remain negative, as the British economy will decrease by 0.3% this year, although the IMF has improved the data by three tenths compared to its previous forecasts. Next year the country is expected to grow 1%, one tenth more than previously expected.
The evolution of the war in Ukraine will be key for Europe
Despite the economic sanctions that the international community has imposed on Russia as punishment for the invasion of Ukraine, which made its economy contract 2.1% last year, the IMF estimates that this year it will grow 0.7%, four tenths more than previously expected.
However, it lowers the forecasts for 2024 by eight tenths, to 1.3%.
The evolution of the war will be vital for European growth, given that although last winter “a gas crisis” was avoided, thanks to good storage and lower demand due to the “atypically mild” climate, an escalation of the war “It could trigger a new energy crisis in Europe and exacerbate food insecurity in low-income countries,” warns the Fund.