Berlin (EFE) the analyzes that they jointly published this Wednesday.
“The economic setback of the winter period 2022-2023 is likely to have been less severe than feared in the fall. The decisive factor is a lower loss of purchasing power as a result of the significant drop in energy prices”, according to the head of economic studies at the Ifo institute, Timo Wollmershäuser.
However, inflation will only moderate slightly and will drop from 6.9% in 2022 to the 6% expected for this year, added Wollmershäuser on behalf of the economic institutes that today published their predictions for the evolution of the leading European economic power.
The experts from these institutes consider that domestic demand is registering the positive consequences of the economic relief measures implemented by the German Government and also estimate that wage increases are boosting domestic demand.
But this has the consequence that inflation remains at high levels. They only expect that the pressure on the price side will relax in 2024 and that then it will fall “notably” to 2.4%.
The predictions include a “stronger” growth forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) of up to 1.5% in 2024.
Experts expect good news for the labor market and predict that the number of employed persons will continue to grow, from 45.6 million people in 2022 to 45.9 million in 2023 and 46 million in 2024.
Unemployment will grow temporarily this year from 2.42 million people to 2.48 million, as a result of the fact that the Ukrainian refugees who have arrived in Germany will not be able to immediately join the labor market.
But they hope that in 2024 unemployment will drop again and stand at 2.41 million people.
The institutes that prepare these forecasts for the German economy are the Ifo (Leibniz-Institute for Economic Research of the University of Munich) in cooperation with the Austrian WIFO, the Kiel Institute for World Economics (IfW Kiel), the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH) and the RWI (Leibniz Institute for Economic Research together with the Institute for Higher Studies in Vienna.
