Roger Mateos |
Barcelona (EFE)
What options are there that JxCat invites Sánchez? Is a repeat election more likely? What is Puigdemont’s strategy? Is he the one who really rules in Junts? Can the Catalan independence movement agree on a price in exchange for their votes? This is a guide to orient yourself in what can be the most complex negotiation:
Why are JxCat votes decisive?
Unlike the 2019 general elections, after which Sánchez was able to dispense with his votes in order to be sworn in, this time the 7 JxCat deputies, with Míriam Nogueras at the helm, are key.
The sum of the 122 deputies from the PSOE, the 31 from Sumar, the 7 from ERC, the 6 from EH Bildu, the 5 from the PNV and the one from the BNG amounts to 172, enough for Sánchez to be sworn in by a simple majority -the PP and Vox reach 169-, as long as JxCat at least abstains.
What are the Junts conditions?
Buried the pujolist strategy of ‘peix al cove’ -based on scratching limited advances in resources and competences for Catalonia-, JxCat belittles the “list of little things” that ERC proposes to the PSOE and maintains a negotiating position of maximums: it only accepts to speak of “amnesty and self-determination”, so that a “personal solution” for Puigdemont would not unravel the investiture.
JxCat has already challenged Sánchez to formulate a “proposal” to “unblock the conflict between Catalonia and Spain”, while former Catalan president Artur Mas recommends that JxCat “do not be in a hurry” to sit down to negotiate: it is better to wait to see the result of the PSOE’s talks with ERC, Bildu, PNV and BNG.
Do the socialists see that price as negotiable?
The price of JxCat is not acceptable to the socialists: the first secretary of the PSC, Salvador Illa, has warned that the PSOE will not accept amnesty or self-determination because “they are not feasible” and has called for “realism” and “being up to the task”.
A facilitator who can grease these negotiating contacts is Jaume Asens, former leader of the commons in Congress, who gave up repeating as a candidate but who has been commissioned by Sumar to lead the negotiations with ERC and Junts, taking advantage of his good relationship with Puigdemont.
Will Junts end up softening his position?
Two souls coexist in JxCat, the pragmatists -there are ex-ministers such as Jaume Giró or Damià Calvet and convergent veterans such as Xavier Trias– and the maximalists -headed by Puigdemont, as well as Laura Borràs and her circle of faithful-, who fought forces last October in the consultation in which it was decided to break the coalition government with ERC: the maximalists won with a 55.73%, compared to 42.39% in favor of continuing to govern.
It has been Puigdemont who has already publicly set the rules of the game for JxCat – “Pedro Sánchez will not be president with the votes of Junts”, he stated in the middle of the campaign – and sources from the pragmatic sector consulted by EFE see it as “difficult” for the party’s position to evolve towards more possibilistic approaches, although for now the leadership is waiting for the PSOE to make a move.
Who really rules in JxCat?
“Spain, capital Waterloo”, wrote Josep Lluís Alay, a trusted man of Puigdemont, at the stroke of midnight on Sunday, in an eloquent tweet that graphically summarizes how the former Catalan president, who does not hold any organic position at the top of JxCat, continues to be by far the most revered and untouchable voice of the party.
Although Waterloo, as Alay suggests, is the sanctuary to which the JxCat staff go when big decisions have to be made, on paper the party is led by the president, Laura Borràs, sentenced, disabled and with her charisma on the decline, and the general secretary, Jordi Turull, who, in their delicate balances to prevent internal tensions from imploding Junts, has generated discomfort among pragmatic leaders who do not feel protected two.
Does the judicial uncertainty around Puigdemont affect you?
One day after 23J, the Prosecutor’s Office asked the Supreme Court judge Pablo Llarena to again order the search and capture and imprisonment of Puigdemont and former minister Antoni Comín after the withdrawal of their immunity as MEPs.
This latest movement by the Prosecutor’s Office further complicates a hypothetical rapprochement between PSOE and Junts, as Puigdemont himself was in charge of pointing out on Twitter: “One day you are decisive in forming a government in Spain and, the next day, Spain orders your arrest.”
What role does ERC play?
After its bump in the municipal elections, ERC has continued to lose votes and seats on 23J, although its 7 deputies are also decisive in Congress, although they will not use their negotiating power to “block” a progressive majority and force an electoral repetition, as advocated by the ANC and sectors of Junts.
JxCat appeals to the Republicans to recompose the “strategic unity” of the independence movement and to deny Sánchez any support if he does not agree to talk about a referendum, but Pere Aragonès is also risking the stability of his Government, and mutual support with the Socialists would be an optimal scenario for him, so ERC has set a more acceptable bar for the PSOE: transfer of Cercanías, solution to the Catalan fiscal deficit and negotiation table.
Can the electoral horizon influence Catalonia?
One of the less explicit but more decisive keys to understanding the political maneuvers in the coming weeks will be the struggle between JxCat and ERC for independence hegemony in the face of Catalan elections scheduled for 2025 but which could be held earlier, given the fragility of the Government of Pere Aragonès, which relies on the 33 Esquerra deputies out of a total of 135.
JxCat’s line of attack against its former partners in the Government focuses on minimizing – even ridiculing – the fruits of the ERC dialogue in Madrid, in an attempt by Junts to project itself as the only pro-independence bastion that tooth and nail defends the legacy of 1-O, so that, thinking of the next Catalan elections, it will hardly accept anything from the PSOE that is not a tangible counterpart related to self-determination.