Washington, (EFE).- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised this Tuesday by one point, up to 2.5%, its growth forecast for Spain this year and stressed the importance of political stability.
“In general, instability is never good for the economy, but I think we have to wait and see how the process ends and where the Spanish people want to go with the results of these elections,” said the director of the IMF’s Research Department, Pierre Olivier Gourinchas, in an interview with EFE on the occasion of the review of world economic forecasts.
In said review, the Fund maintains its economic growth forecast for 2024 at 2%.
In any case, Gourinchas highlighted the “strong resilience” that the Spanish economy has shown, which together with the rebound in tourism has allowed this improvement in forecasts, adding that there is “even better” news with the drop in inflation in Spain. “Growth is higher and inflation is lower, it’s a magical combination,” he said.
“Moderate” rise in wages
He also appreciated that there has been a “moderate” rise in wages thanks to the negotiations of the social agents, which is “comforting” when it comes to controlling inflation.
In any case, he did not want to speculate on whether this result may have an effect on economic forecasts. “It’s too early for that,” she said.
Tourism is the main reason why Spanish growth this year will be much higher than what the IMF calculated in April, according to the revision released today. Spain will continue to be the country that grows the most among the large economies of the euro zone.
These forecasts are known two days after the general elections in the country, although they were prepared by the international organization before the appointment with the polls.
Reforms in the pension system
During the interview, and when asked about the policies that Spain should address, Gourinchas pointed out “some more reforms in the pension system” that prevent there being “unfunded liabilities” and make said system not only for current generations but also for future ones.
He also considered that since the energy crisis is behind us, it would be a “good time” to gradually “reduce” some of the measures taken in this field to support the increase in prices.
He added, in this sense, that although Spain’s fiscal prospects are “well” situated.
The Spanish forecasts are included in the IMF’s review of its world economic outlook, in which it has slightly raised its global growth forecast for this year, which now stands at 3%, two tenths above that of April, while also maintaining 2024 at 3%.