Madrid (EFE).- The final results of the general elections are awaiting the vote of residents abroad, the so-called CERA vote, which will begin to be counted as of this Friday.
The Provincial Electoral Boards will then conclude the general scrutiny of the votes by including the ballots that have been able to cast the 2.3 million Spaniards who reside in other countries and are registered in the Census of Absent Residents Abroad (CERA).
These general elections have been the first in which the requested vote was no longer in force, the suffrage modality that governed between 2011 and 2022 for citizens living abroad, which forced the voter to “beg” for their vote and which led to a drop in participation during this period.
For this reason, the arrival of the CERA vote is key, especially if participation has increased.
Deputies still in play
In the elections of November 10, 2019, in which CERA voters begged for their right to vote, only 226,050 vote requests were accepted, so it is expected that in the 23J elections the vote cast will be higher.
In this way, some seats could remain in play after adding the ballots issued by this group that brings together 2,325,310 registered voters as of March 1, 196,751 more than almost four years ago.
Spaniards registered abroad received electoral documentation from the provincial delegations of the Electoral Census Office without having to request it in advance and deposited their ballot papers in embassies and consulates until July 20, although they could also cast their votes by mail until the 18th of the same month.
Another novelty of the reform of the electoral law is that CERA voters have had more time to deposit their vote in the ballot box -with more days and both in the morning and in the afternoon- in relation to previous electoral appointments.
Once the voting period has ended, the CERA envelopes and ballots have been transferred by electoral shipment, by diplomatic pouch, to an office set up in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for this procedure, which is in charge of forwarding them to the corresponding Electoral Boards.
The PP could win up to 3 seats, according to his calculations
The PP is awaiting whether the recount of the foreign vote, the so-called CERA vote, can allow them to add another three seats to their 136 deputies, one in Madrid that they would take from the PSOE, another in Girona that they would beat Junts and a last seat in Cantabria from Vox.
The recount of the vote of the absent residents is therefore key for governance and the distribution of the blocks, because the PSOE could go back to 121 seats if the PP adds another in Madrid and Junts loses one of its seven representatives.
With the current distribution, the PP (136) plus Vox (33) add up to 169, to which could be added UPN (1) and the Canary Islands Coalition (1), which, however, has qualms with Vox. This hypothetical and complex sum would reach 171 seats, while the PSOE (122) with its partners (31 from Sumar, 7 from ERC, 6 from EH Bildu, 5 from PNV and 1 from BNG) would add 172, one above the other bloc. Junts would have the key to governance in abstention.
However, if the PP adds the Madrid seat, and counting on that hypothetical sum, it would be placed at 172 and the PSOE at 171. And if the popular ones managed to add that of Girona, the possible sum of this space could give 173 compared to 171, in that scenario the PSOE would need the yes of Junts and not just their abstention.
Pay attention to Madrid, Girona and Cantabria
In the PP they acknowledge that they are aware of how the last seats at stake are distributed, although sources in the leadership admit that it is not easy.
According to popular sources, the PP is 1,700 votes away from wresting a seat in Madrid from the PSOE, a community in which the popular have achieved 40.51% of the votes and the foreign vote is very numerous, with a total of 375,602 voters called to the polls. This is the most probable seat because in this autonomy the popular ones clearly prevail.
In Cantabria, the PP would be 428 votes away from snatching a seat from Vox, although in this case the blocks would not move. In this community there are 41,182 voters abroad.
Finally, the popular ones depend on 363 votes to take a seat from Junts per Cataluña in Girona (Catalonia), where the PP currently has no representative and the voters with the right to vote abroad reach 23,993.
The CERA vote will begin to be counted as of this Friday, when the Provincial Electoral Boards will conclude the general scrutiny of the votes by including the ballots that the 2.3 million Spaniards residing in other countries and are registered in the Census of Absent Residents Abroad (CERA).