Enrique Rodríguez de la Rubia |
Madrid (EFE).- The day of the elections is approaching and the calls for the useful vote are multiplying. A somewhat hackneyed concept but which usually calls for no vote to be lost, for each ballot to be reflected in seats and, incidentally, to facilitate the formation of solid parliamentary majorities.
As is natural, it is usually the largest parties, to the detriment of the small ones, that insistently ask for that useful vote because on paper it allows them to optimize their results in constituencies in which minority formations can enter or be left out of the cast of deputies.
According to the latest published polls, the elections next Sunday are being played in less than 20 constituencies, those in which there is a last seat that is dancing for just a few thousand votes.
Whether a sufficient majority can be formed after 23J to govern or whether a repeat election will have to be held depends largely on these last seats.
That the PP obtain a majority with or without the active support of Vox or that, on the contrary, it is the block on the left, headed by PSOE and Sumar, who has the possibility of reissuing the investiture thanks to some kind of agreement with ERC and EH Bildu.
PSOE and PP know this and they do the rest in the last days of the campaign by going to those squares to give a final push that allows them to touch the victory or fall into resounding defeat.
But beware, the useful vote can be effective in some places but not in others. Both PSOE and PP seek the best result, but as long as it does not end up sinking the results of their potential partners in the government, Sumar and Vox.
concentrate the vote
To begin with, the important thing is not the overall percentage of votes, but how they are distributed. They know it well historically in the United Left and in more recent elections in the PACMA, a formation that has around 228,000 votes and 1 percent of the votes of the national total but that time and again is left out of Congress.
The PACMA exceeds the Canary Islands Coalition in citizen support -124,000 votes- the BNG -120,000-, Nafarroa Bai -99,000-, the PRC -68,000- or Teruel Existe -19,000-, and only a few thousand votes separate it from EH Bildu or the cup. Unlike PACMA, all these parties have had seats in Congress. EH Bildu has even had its own parliamentary group.
It seems clear that concentrating the vote optimizes the result. If it is also done in sparsely populated districts, the effect is enhanced.
Teruel Existe obtained a seat with 19,000 votes, PACMA, with 228,000, none.
The D’Hont system is not to blame
This distortion of electoral representation is caused by several factors, but the most important is the number of seats distributed by province or constituency. The D’Hondt system, which is sometimes blamed for all ills, has a limited influence and sometimes none.
The truth is that the more seats are distributed, the result is more proportional and the appeal to the useful vote, in a certain way, can lose some sense.
In Madrid, 37 seats are distributed, a sufficient number for any party that exceeds the minimum of 3 percent set by law to obtain a deputy. In November 2019, Más País obtained two seats with 5.7 percent.
Of course, each of the 37 seats in Madrid then cost about 100,000 votes, in Soria, where two are distributed, barely 15,000 votes. The province of Soria has kept the result unchanged for decades. The party with the most votes takes one seat, the second the other.
In this particular case, the appeal to the useful vote is also meaningless. There is no possibility of a third party in discord and PSOE and PP have practically guaranteed the seat.
Thus, it seems that the key to this supposed useful vote is in the medium-sized provinces, those that distribute between four and seven deputies and where there are parties, such as Sumar or Vox, with percentages close to 15 percent that can win a seat or being left out by just a handful of votes.
And of course, it is the big parties, normally PSOE and PP, that benefit from those ballots, in quotes, thrown away.
This phenomenon can be seen clearly in circumscriptions such as Jaén, with five deputies at stake. Going back to 2019, the PSOE obtained 3 deputies with 39.1 percent of the votes, the PP one, with 22.68 percent, and Vox, the last, with 19.89 percent.
Each of its three deputies cost the PSOE 47,000 votes, the PP 82,000 and Vox 71,000. A clear distortion between the number of votes and seats obtained. The Socialists made very good use of their ballots, just the opposite of Vox, and especially the PP.
A slight drop in Vox would have turned the result upside down, removing Santiago Abascal’s party from the distribution of seats in favor of the PP, which would have obtained two deputies instead of one.
A similar case occurred in Salamanca, where four seats are distributed, although this time the beneficiary was the PP. The popular ones obtained two deputies with 67,000 votes, the PSOE, only one, with 57,000 and Vox, the last parliamentarian with 34,000.
Jaén and Salamanca are just two examples that now, facing 23J, can be repeated in some twenty provinces according to the latest polls. It is estimated that there are almost 30 seats in dispute by a margin that oscillates between 4,000 or 5,000 votes.
A trifle for an election to which almost 37.5 million voters are called.