Alice Lopez |
Madrid June (EFE) -and now they have managed to climb ten points.
The PP keeps the vote of Ciudadanos and 8% of the socialist vote
They would monopolize around 60 percent of the vote, still very far from the 84% they had in the first years of the start of the new century, before the appearance of new parties disrupted the electoral map, they explain to EFE Antonio Asencio from Sigma Dos and the Political scientist Pablo Simón, specialist in party and electoral systems.
According to the person in charge of Sigma Dos, the bipartisanship grows due to the rise of the PP, which has been done, on the one hand, with the entire Cs electorate, as reflected by the 28M, and they have also absorbed between 8 and 9% of the socialist vote.
This transfer of ballots from the PSOE to the PP is giving the right-wing block an advantage of between 5 and 7 points, argues Asencio, since “each vote stolen from the rival counts twice: one more for you and one less for the opponent.”
Pablo Simón also insists that what this electoral cycle does is “reconfigure” the changes that began to take place in 2014 and, according to what he says, it is being observed that the electorate “has moved to the right”.
The CIS speaks of “bibloquism”
This expert recalls that in the last general elections of November 2019, the left and the right practically tied in votes, some 10,400,000, with the advantage of the socialists. The right concurred divided into three forces (PP, Cs and Vox) and it was “inefficient” to transfer these votes to deputies.
While from the CIS they speak of “bibloquismo” instead of bipartisanship, the spokeswoman for Gad3, Elena Chaves, points out that the 28M has returned to the scenario of the useful vote in which people bet on the party that has more experience “and considers that It’s more established.”
Previously, he maintains, he had opted for a “more experimental” vote, which focused on the discontent left by the previous financial crisis and which brought younger leaders with very hopeful messages, but then these forces (Podemos and Cs) ” They have not been able to adapt to these scenarios that are marking the present and they have also suffered identity crises that have taken their toll.
He also points out that the PP has retained its electorate “very well” on 28M and believes that, to this day, this transfer of votes from the PSOE to the popular ones will remain in the general elections. In any case, he warns that electoral debates and campaigns produce movements of votes, although above all within the same bloc.
The PSOE faced with the challenge of lowering the advantage of the PP to less than 5 points
For the person in charge of Sigma Dos, the options to avoid an absolute majority of Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Santiago Abascal go through “reducing” that escape of votes towards the PP (8/9%) and that this conservative advantage falls below 5 points .
Sánchez will try to shake up the municipal and regional pacts of PP and Vox to contain that part of his electorate that today is choosing the Popular Party ballot, although the thesis of Sigma Dos is that these pacts were taken for granted.
Therefore, what can influence are the first decisions adopted by these governments, both to reinforce that socialist vote that has passed to the PP and to reverse it.
And regarding the possibilities of the PP to stay above Sánchez, Asencio believes that he will have to retain that socialist leak or increase it and overcome the threshold of 47 percent of the votes with Vox, which guarantees him an absolute majority.
18% undecided between PSOE and Sumar
Pablo Simón also points out another piece of information that is the high percentage of undecideds (18%), which, according to demographic studies, bring together PSOE and Sumar and how the noise that has accompanied the preparation of the lists can affect the behavior of these undecideds of Yolanda Díaz for the discomfort of Podemos.
Although the purples have lowered the piston once the candidacies have been closed, Sumar is a complicated coalition having fifteen parties and any hint of lack of cohesion can be an invitation to a useful vote. This could benefit the PSOE because it steals votes and the PP because it has a better chance of the Sánchez government not being repeated.
The participation of 23J: The right is more mobilized
Many studies forecast a turnout on 23J, in the middle of the summer holidays, of more than 70%, a figure that marks a trend of repoliticization of society that according to the CIS has been visualized with the May elections.
Traditionally it was understood that a high turnout benefited the left, but this is no longer necessarily the case, says the person in charge of Sigma Dos, because the electorate is now “much more flexible and mobile.”
What does emerge from the Sigma Dos polls and other companies, says Asencio, is that the right is more mobilized than the left.
The Gad3 expert also points out that the more participation, the more the PP and PSOE benefit and when it is lower, the performance is greater for the smallest parties and at the extremes, and this is produced by the simple application of the D’Hondt method, she argues. .