Francisco Tomás-Valiente |
Madrid (EFE).- The Valencian Community and the municipalities of Seville and Barcelona will be the three key places on May 28 to decide which party is the winner of the elections.
Once these unknowns are resolved, the results in the Community of Madrid will become more or less relevant, and specifically if Isabel Díaz Ayuso reaches an absolute majority and also the color of the Government of Castilla-La Mancha.
Several consultants questioned by EFE as well as various published analyzes agree on these two ideas.
Likewise, from the published polls it can be deduced that the formations that make up the central Executive are on the defensive, so that the central question to be resolved by the 28M will be to know if PSOE and UP maintain positions or not.
In this sense, and although the elections are regional and municipal, it will not be possible to steal from a national reading of the number of votes, because if the PP wins the PSOE in total percentage, the possibility of a reversal in the general elections will no longer be a mere survey prediction.
But in addition, the overall result may depend on another national political factor: the resistance of Unidas Podemos.
Valencian Community
All analyzes agree that if Ximo Puig loses the presidency of the Generalitat Valenciana, the sign of socialist retreat will be clear, regardless of what happens in other places.
The polls suggest that the difference will be marked by a few thousand votes, with a very good result for the PP in Alicante compared to a slight improvement in support for the PSPV throughout the region and some stability in support for Compromís.
In this way, the resistance of UP and Esquerra Unida PV will be decisive, two formations that have been forced to understand each other -at least in the elections to Les Corts- to have options of reaching the minimum of 5% of the votes without which they would not obtain any deputy.
Faced with a situation of technical tie between blocks, its five or six seats could complete the majority of PSPV and Compromís, as has happened in the second edition of the Pacto del Botànic that has brought Puig to the presidency.
Sevilla
The trend in Andalusia is for the transfer of votes from the PSOE to the PP (around 10% in the Andalusian elections of 2022).
Now then, in the municipal elections the weight of each candidate is important by itself, so that the question in the city that was the capital of socialism in times of its great absolute majorities will be whether Antonio Muñoz, the current mayor, can change the direction of the current and stay ahead of Seville.
If this does not happen, the PSOE would be left without a mayor in the main cities of the country, safe from what happens in Barcelona.
Barcelona’s town hall
Barcelona will be another of the keys of 28M. And there the result of Podemos or, to put it correctly, of the formation that absorbed its voters will also be decisive. Because Podemos does not exist in Barcelona.
Now, Barcelona en Comú, which derives from En Comú Podem (the regional brand), has the consistory in its hands. And some surveys indicate that the mayoress Ada Colau could have to give the position to Jaume Collboni (PSC).
The polls place the Socialists in the lead, but also very close to Xavier Trias (Junts per Catalunya) and the ERC candidate, Ernest Maragall.
What finally happens is unknown, and that unknown affects not only who will win the elections, but also what alliances will be possible, because, according to polls, no party will be able to govern alone.
The other determining factors
A popular victory in the Valencian Community and in Seville would leave Núñez Feijóo in a very strong position, and Pedro Sánchez in the opposite situation. But possibly the reverse is also true. In this way, the leadership of the two big parties will be more or less questioned depending on what happens in those two places.
And depending on these key places, the results in two other autonomous governments will become more important.
The possible absolute majority of Ayuso in Madrid
If Podemos deepens the debacle in the Community of Madrid that led Pablo Iglesias to resign, and it does not manage to have parliamentary representation because it does not reach 5% of votes, a possibility that, right now, seems difficult: the absolute majority of the PP of the current president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso (winner of the elections according to all the polls).
The combination of that absolute majority and a fiasco of the popular ones in Valencia and Seville could put Feijóo in trouble in the face of the strength of Madrid, according to some published analyses.
The result of Emiliano García-Page in Castilla-La Mancha
The current Castilian-La Mancha president, Emiliano García-Page, has been especially critical of Pedro Sánchez. If he maintains his government in Toledo, his result must be seen in the context of the rest of the country.
That is to say, it will confirm the socialist force in the event that things have gone well for them in the other key places, but it will also make the failure of the current Prime Minister more evident if the opposite happens.
The polls point to a very tight result. If the PSOE lost the Government of Castilla-La Mancha, it would send favorable signals to a forthcoming popular majority in Moncloa.
Other designated places
The defensive position of socialism also affects another leading square of the PSOE, Extremadura, where the absolute majority of Guillermo Fernández Vara does not seem likely according to most polls, which nevertheless grant him the probability of forming a government with Podemos.
In Aragon, another socialist, Javier Lambán, has his future government on the wing, according to the polls published so far. The PSOE might not be the first force and in a very fragmented Cortes, Aragón Existe could be decisive.