Madrid (EFE) He predicts that José Luis Martínez-Almeida (PP) will win the elections in the capital, but in his case he does not even take it for granted that he can govern.
The CIS vote estimate attributes to Ayuso a range of between 61 and 70 seats. The absolute majority of the Madrid Assembly is at 68, so the PP could achieve it and, in any case, it could govern hand in hand with Vox, which would obtain between 8 and 10 deputies.
Almeida, at risk
However, in the capital the majority of the right is not guaranteed: the PP would get between 21 and 25 councilors and Vox, between 4 and 5, so their worst projections leave them below the 29 councilors who mark the absolute majority in Cibeles Palace.
Almeida’s continuity as mayor could ultimately depend on Ciudadanos, which according to the CIS would have between 0 and 3 councilors. However, he needs 5% of the ballot to have representation in the Consistory, and the CIS estimates that he will receive 4.3%, although in a range that goes from 3.1% to 5.6%.
In the regional elections in Madrid, Ayuso’s absolute majority could depend to a large extent on whether Podemos enters the Madrid Assembly, and the CIS predicts that it will exceed the necessary minimum of 5% of the ballot: it gives the purple party an estimate of vote of 6.6%, within a range between 5.2% and 6.9%, which would translate into between 8 and 10 seats.
The CIS also foresees that Más Madrid will consolidate its leadership of the opposition, going from its current 24 seats to 29-30.
The PSOE, which also has 24 deputies but obtained fewer votes than Más Madrid in 2021, would move according to the CIS in a broader range, between 19 and 26 seats, but always behind Mónica García’s party.
Finally, the CIS does not give any option to Citizens to return to the Assembly: their vote estimate is 1.5%, within a range of between 1.1% and 1.9%, far from 5 % necessary.
The City Council: More Madrid could govern
In the municipal elections, the CIS admits the possibility that the right does not add an absolute majority, and in that case, Más Madrid would govern, the second force in the CIS projections, with between 13 and 18 councilors.
What happens with Podemos and Ciudadanos will be key, whose support could tip the balance between the PP and Más Madrid, and whose representation in the Palacio de Cibeles is up in the air. The CIS gives them options, but sees both formations more outside than inside.
For Podemos, he calculates a vote estimate of 4.5%, within a range of between 3.3% and 5.8% and four councilors in the best of cases.
And, for Citizens, the CIS estimates that it receives 4.3% of the vote, with a range of between 3.1 and 5.6%, for a maximum of 3 councilors.
The PSOE, for its part, would remain at 8-11 councilors, and Vox at 4-5.