Lucia Ruiz Simon |
Madrid (EFE).- The data handled by the consultants and those revealed by the National Institute of Statistics reflect a scenario of relentless price increases in the supermarket in the first quarter of the year in which the drop in volume has become an important concern for companies.
The year began with an applauded drop in VAT on basic foodstuffs, a measure adopted by the Government to alleviate the effect of inflation on the shopping basket which, so far, has not been enough to appease the prices and the consequent reaction of the consumer to compensate the budget.
With data as of February from the INE, food and alcoholic beverages are 16.5% more expensive than a year ago, when in turn they were already 5.6% higher than in February 2021.
While waiting to know the Harmonized Price Index for March, which will be released on April 14, the data from the Circana consultancy suggest that the increase in the cost of buying for large consumption -includes food, beverages, drugstores and perfumes- in these first three months of the year will be around 12%.
Prices “are going to keep skyrocketing”
The consultant has pointed out that possibly the March data suggests a certain relaxation in supermarket prices, although “they will remain skyrocketing” and the quarter will close very high, says the spokesperson for this consultancy, Sandra Latorre.
And it highlights a trend that was perceived at the beginning of the year and that is already a reality: Spaniards have reduced their purchase volume by over 4%, a drop that is more evident in categories such as food and in subgroups such as fresh, in particular.
The Association of manufacturers and distributors companies (Aecoc) periodically hold meetings such as the commercial strategy and marketing committee, which, when analyzing the companies this first quarter, has highlighted the contraction in demand as a difficulty.
“The trend that we saw at the end of 2022 is continuing and has been accentuated this first quarter,” explains the association’s commercial and marketing strategy manager, Rosario Pedrosa, to Efeagro.
Without relaxing the increases in costs such as energy and raw materials, “it is clear that margins are being reduced and efforts are being made to protect the companies’ operating accounts,” he points out.
A chameleon consumer
And to all this is added an uncertainty: the behavior of a consumer who “on the one hand attends to prices and, on the other, makes it clear that he is also organized to have his moments of indulgence and enjoyment.”
For sample, the demand data outside the home during this Holy Week, details.
Given this situation, the expert points out that it is opportune to understand that the inflationary situation affects all spending items -housing, leisure, supplies and food, among others- that function as “communicating vessels”.
For now, in food, what has become clear and dated is that consumers are “buying less and have changed their mix of products” to adapt to this reality that has affected the budget of all families to a greater or lesser extent.
Pedrosa points out that given this situation of uncertainty, it is difficult to know how the mass consumption business will evolve, since it will depend on how inflation evolves and, above all, consumer confidence and the additional measures that could be adopted.
Fish and meat, in the spotlight
While a part of the Government continues to defend the validity of its measures -lowering the VAT on basic products, aid to producers and checks for vulnerable families- from part of the executive branch it has been urged to go further and the opposition insists on increasing the range of products with less tax burden.
It coincides with the claim of a sector that looks directly at meat and fish, as basic elements of the shopping cart that are currently taxed at 10%.
According to the latest official data, the prices of fresh and refrigerated fish have risen by 9.4 in one year and, in the most consumed meats, poultry by 14.3% and pork by 15.4%.
They are far from the increases that accumulate other basic foods such as eggs (+28%) or whole milk (+33%), now without VAT.
This being the case, the consumer goods business continues to hold its own in the face of this price rise that, paradoxically, stifles its client, a multifaceted and complex consumer.