Barcelona (EFE) absolute, according to the latest barometer of the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO) of the Generalitat.
The survey, carried out by GESOP from 2,000 face-to-face interviews between February 27 and March 24, gives the PP fourth position, with a range of 8 to 12 deputies, which would be in a three-way tie with the CUP (8-12) and En Comú Podem (7-12), ahead of Vox (7-10) and Ciutadans, which would border on disappearance (0-5).
The sums of seats from ERC, JxCat and the CUP leave in limbo the possibility of repeating an absolute pro-independence majority in Parliament: if the upper band of their projection of deputies were confirmed, they would repeat the current 74 seats, but adding those that it gives them the low band of the survey would sink to 59.
Regarding the direct vote estimate, the PSC (23-27%) and ERC (18-22%) would maintain their struggle observed in previous CEO barometers, and would be followed by Junts, which would monopolize between 14 and 17% .
In fourth position, the PP would achieve between 7 and 9% of direct vote intention, followed by the commons (6-9%), a tie between the CUP and Vox (6-8%) and, lastly , Citizens, who would retain between 3 and 5% of the votes, according to data from the CEO.
Possible tie in some generals
If general elections were held, in Catalonia there could be a tie in deputies between the PSC (12-15) and ERC (11-15), followed by En Comú Podem (4-8), which would go from appearing as fifth force in the previous barometer to occupy the third position.
JxCat could drop to fourth position, with a range of between 5 and 7 seats in Congress, followed by the PP (2-5), a tie between Vox and the CUP -between 1 and 4 deputies-, and CS, which closes with an estimate of between 0 and 1 seat.
The “no” to independence remains at 50%
Regarding the position on the independence of Catalonia, 50% of Catalans are against secession, a figure identical to that observed in the latest barometer of the CEO, while 43% – up one percentage point – are committed to it and 7% are undecided, compared to the 8% registered in November 2022.
77% of those surveyed say they strongly or somewhat agree that Catalans “have the right to decide their future as a country by voting in a referendum”, compared to 16% who disagree or strongly disagree.
Regarding the territorial model, and taking into account the results of the latest CEO survey, preferences are increasing for Catalonia to remain an autonomous community (32% compared to 29% in November 2022) and for it to become a Federal State (23% compared to 20%).
The option of an independent State falls one percentage point (33%) and that of a region of Spain, two (6%).
On the other hand, the CEO survey reveals an improvement in the assessment that Catalans make of the management of the Generalitat and the central government: both institutions obtained an average score of 3.5 in the previous barometer and, in the current data, they receive a score of 4.2 and 4.1, respectively.
