Madrid (EFE).- PP and VOX will add enough seats on 23-J to achieve an absolute majority if they join forces, according to polls published in recent days.
At the same time, the polls show the image of a PP stagnant in its growth, so it can be said that the probability of a lone Alberto Núñez Feijóo executive seems to be receding.
This is deduced from the estimates of Sigma Dos, Ipsos, 40db, Nc Report, IMPOP Insights, YouGob and Gad3, according to a calculation prepared by EFE.
The polls of these opinion companies, published in recent days, immediately prior to the debate to be held tonight, indicate an advantage of the PP over the rest of the forces that has been maintained in recent weeks, with 140 seats and 34% of the votes (on average).
On the other hand, they point out that Feijóo will not overcome the barrier of 150 deputies, from which he would achieve a certain autonomy to form a Government, even if he depended on VOX for the investiture. Only Gad3 has placed the party led by Feijóo above those 150 seats.
As for VOX, the probable ally of the popular obtains 13% of the votes and 37 seats on average.
At the same time, the PSOE consolidates a result that distances it from disaster (28% of the votes and 107 seats on average) and Sumar is not able to surpass VOX, but it is close with 12% and 32 seats.
Trends
The experts warn that, in general, when surveys of a few thousand interviews are analyzed, almost always by telephone, the indication of the percentage of votes is usually more reliable than the allocation of seats.
The average result achieved by the sum of PP and VOX in the latest polls of the aforementioned companies is 47% of the votes, a percentage that places whoever controls it in the absolute majority in Congress, although it is not exactly equivalent to half plus one of the votes.
Another of the elements that analysts study as a complementary indication is the general trend that the polls show in comparison with the situation of a few weeks before.
And, in this sense, it can be said that the PP’s distance from the Socialists seems to be shortening moderately since last June. In addition, this cut is not taking place at the expense of SUMAR.
It should be remembered that the CIS recognized on July 5 the probable victory of the PP. Of course, his prediction of seats does not admit that the sum of PP and VOX will reach 176 seats of an absolute majority. He predicts 42% of the votes and 156 seats for them.
The entry Polls give an absolute majority to the right on 23J, but distance a lone government from the PP was first published in EFE Noticias.