Francisco Tomás-Valiente |
Madrid (EFE).- The case of the state of Ohio, where the winning party always coincides with the winner of the United States presidential elections, has led Spanish sociologists to look for the Spanish example, to the point of proposing various places, all of which, when asked about 23J, they look in the same direction, to the right.
Thus, it is worth remembering the group of sociologists Equipo Piedras de Papel and its 2015 publication “Aragón is our Ohio” (Malpaso Ediciones). That text indicated that “whoever wins in Aragon, wins in Spain”, as has happened in the aforementioned North American state “since the 1964 presidential elections”.
“Aragon is a microcosm of the national universe, a tiny Spain,” they explained, before arguing in defense of their theory that the Courts of Aragon are a reflection, both ideologically and territorially, of the rest of the country.
In this sense, they pointed out how the Aragonese oscillate towards the PSOE or the PP with enough flexibility, how the community has small territorial parties and how, in addition, it has within it a large constituency and two small ones, so that it replies with enough fidelity the allocation of seats in Congress.
Well, as is well known, the 28M in Aragon won the PP (28 seats) and that party is currently negotiating with Vox (7 seats) the investiture or the formation of the Government, given that both forces more than have an absolute majority (34 seats). . If Aragón is the Spanish Ohio, the thing is clear.
The Oracle of Robles
However, there are other oracles, since several electoral experts consulted by EFE point out other territories with predictive value on the general ones, for example that species from Ohio within Aragón that constitutes the town of Robres (Huesca). There the winning majority always coincides with that of the generals.
The 550 inhabitants of this town located in the living desert of Los Monegros voted en masse last 28M. 82% participation, that is, 358 votes that went 52% to the PP compared to 45.9% to the PSOE, unlike what happened in 2019, when the PSOE won with 56.1% against a 34.7% of the PP.
The result of the municipal elections has been four councilors for the PP compared to three for the PSOE, the opposite of the previous call. And in the regional elections the opinion has been even clearer, since the PP has won by almost nine points of difference, compared to the 17 points of advantage that the PSOE took four years ago.
But it is not the only example to consult, there is also the city of Badajoz, even the community of Extremadura itself as a whole. Both are significant examples, though not exactly following the same dynamic as Ohio.
Signs in Extremadura
The advantage of just over 4% that the PP took over the PSOE in May 2011 in Extremadura, exceptional in the history of this community, where the Socialists had always won, later translated into a large absolute majority for the popular Mariano Rajoy in November of that same year in the generals.
The PSOE beat the PP last 28M in Extremadura by a single percentage point, six thousand votes. Almost a tie. A bad omen for the Socialists ahead of July 23.
And then there is the city of Badajoz. The PP reached 56% of the vote there in 2011, compared to 27% for the PSOE. It was a much clearer difference than the one reflected in the autonomy as a whole, and much closer to the national result of a few months later in the general elections, when the popular victory was resounding.
Well, the PSOE won in 2019 in Badajoz, but in the municipal elections of 2023 the PP has won with 44%, compared to 31% for the socialists.
eight years later
Finally, it is worth remembering how the Piedras Papel Team pointed out in 2015 that the emergence of new national political forces was producing an earthquake in the bipartisanship that could, or not, end up being structural.
Eight years later, the Spanish Ohio draw a return to the future in political constellations.
And so, if we look inside the crystal ball, we see Vox peering into the abyss of being second best, Sumar locked in the corner on the left, Pedro Sánchez counting, on the one hand, the moving boxes, but on the other also the seats, because if he gets a hundred he could hold out at the head of the PSOE.
And, finally, Alberto Núñez Feijóo in front of a notebook, racking his brains to find future ministers. All oracles face to the right.