Sydney (Australia) (EFE).- World economic production would fall by 2.8% in the first year, an amount equivalent to 2.7 trillion dollars (2.5 trillion euros), if China decides to block Taiwan, indicated the Institute for the Economy and Peace in a report released this Wednesday.
The figure “is almost double the loss that occurred as a result of the 2008 global financial crisis,” according to the “conservative” analysis of the seventeenth edition of the Global Peace Index, prepared by this Institute, based in Sydney. .
“Any kind of conflict between Taiwan and China would have devastating economic consequences globally. A potential conflict could take many different forms, such as a military invasion of Taiwan, a limited military operation, cyber attacks and sabotage, or a naval blockade,” the 98-page document states.
Although China is not currently directly involved in any foreign conflict, the Asian giant has become more assertive in the South China Sea, where it has territorial disputes, while intensifying air operations in the vicinity of the self-governing island. of Taiwan, whose sovereignty it claims.
In a hypothetical blockade in the region, which could include the naval obstruction of communication with the outside world, the Institute for the Economy and Peace explains in its report that 60% of the loss of economic activity would occur in China and Taiwan .
“As expected, China and Taiwan would lose the most in the event of a blockade,” says the report, which calculates that the combined losses could reach 1.6 trillion dollars (1.5 trillion euros).
In addition, China and Taiwan, which together account for 31% of global trade in computers and electronics and 23% in electrical appliances, would also suffer a drop in GDP of 7% and 40%, respectively, the report added.
The blow from the drop in economic output would be felt hard in Southeast Asia, South Korea and Japan, as well as Australia and the rest of Oceania, countries that import computers and electronics from China and Taiwan.
China and Taiwan’s main trading partners are consolidated and militarily aligned democracies: the United States, Japan, South Korea, Germany and Australia.