Marta Rullán |
Rome, June 15 (EFE).- The death of Silvio Berlusconi has unleashed alarms about the future of Forza Italia (FI), the conservative party that he founded in 1994 to boost his political career: his future is now uncertain, as is his influence in the Government of Giorgia Meloni, although without putting it at risk.
The possible disappearance of FI has hovered since Monday, when the three-time prime minister died at the age of 86 without leaving a clear heir, because it is very difficult to imagine Berlusconi’s party without Berlusconi in this country.
The great candidate is his “right hand” and current coordinator, the Foreign Minister and Vice President of the Executive, Antonio Tajani, although without ruling out other hypotheses, such as that Marina Berlusconi, the eldest daughter, becomes the necessary glue when multiple leaks are glimpsed. from their ranks.
In any case, the vast majority of the ultra-right-wing Meloni Executive, supported by FI and Matteo Salvini’s sovereignist League, is in no apparent danger, according to the vast majority of analysts.
“The influence in the government coalition will be minimal. It has a strong majority and a convergent common interest of all the political forces and all the deputies, including those of FI. His interest is total to continue in the Government”, explains to EFE the professor of Political Sciences of the University of Pisa Alberto Vannuncci.
Marina and Martha
Tajani, although he would never have the absolute power of Berlusconi, is the favorite to manage the first and difficult phase of transition, but in reality there is an alternative scenario that sounds more and more powerful and that is that one of his children, or rather your daughters, decide to assume that responsibility.
Not surprisingly, the family has already guaranteed that it will take over the party’s debts, which are around 100 million euros and which were guaranteed by the politician, with assets of more than 6,000 million euros.
This financial support can continue to “not break the party and continue to be, as up to now, an element of protection of the economic and financial interests of the Berlusconi family in the political system,” he adds.
But “if one of its members decided to lead the party, it would be, according to the polls, the solution preferred by the majority of voters and supporters of FI, for whom the ideal figure is Marina”, aged 56, ahead of her other heirs: Pier Silvio, Bárbara, Eleonora and Luigi, or even the tycoon’s last girlfriend, Marta Fascina, 53 years his junior.
“The family will continue to be crucial in the destiny of FI and in this context Berlusconi’s ‘false wife’ has played a key political role over the years, the element of union with a Berlusconi in the twilight phase. She was the link for the requests for representatives, administrators, delegates and she acquired enormous power within the party, ”she points out.
At first the tycoon delegated it to her, “but then it was Marina, the family figure most directly involved in FI affairs”, so Fascina’s role will depend a lot on how the relationship between the two is now, she explains.
an open war
In any case, no one doubts that a war between factions can be unleashed and that exponents of the party flee to others, such as those of Meloni and Salvini, but also the centrists of Matteo Renzi or Carlo Calenda.
“The prevailing opinion is that it will face infighting between the currents. It could split and fragment. Although in the short term many will remain loyal to Tajani, insiders tell me that even a good part of the party is in danger of falling apart”, explains the American Alan Friedman, author of the only authorized biography of the tycoon.
But this fratricidal process “does not necessarily represent a threat to the ruling majority, since in all probability many of those who decide to leave Forza Italia will end up joining the Brothers of Italy or the League”, adds “La Stampa”, because “some could even throw themselves into Renzi’s open arms, it is plausible that the vast majority will jump to the right”.
It is clear that the Forza Italia crisis opens up a very desirable political space, particularly for Meloni, who decreed for Berlusconi an unprecedented national mourning for a former prime minister and state funerals.
“One hypothesis is that of a kind of merger between Brothers of Italy and Forza FI, which would allow Meloni not only to keep his electorate, but also with the value of the brand and thus obtain its legitimacy as a more moderate force” and would place it in a “better situation before the European People’s Party,” according to Vannuci.
Although Friedman is clear that “it is difficult to imagine that the party will prosper again” and predicts that “within a few years, FI could see its strength at the polls reduced by half, to around 3 or 4%”, while the former president of the Senate Marcello Pera is not clear “if he will survive.”
And he considers it “obvious” that Meloni picks up the political legacy: Berlusconi “invented the center-right government, united a coalition around himself.”