Federico Segarra |
Manila (EFE).- The consolidation of the alliance between the Philippines and the US, promoted by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is, according to experts, a natural correction of the turn towards China promoted by his predecessor, which has accelerated by the expansionism of Beijing.
The renewed idyll between Washington and Manila, which distanced itself during the term of former President Rodrigo Duterte (2016-2022), since he opted to court Beijing, reached its peak this Wednesday, after a joint statement in which both countries drew a sheet route to strengthen the alliance in foreign policy, defense, energy and technology transfer.
In the note, released by the US State Department after a bilateral ministerial meeting in Washington, both countries discreetly revealed the reason for their rapprochement, condemning the continued presence of Chinese vessels in Philippine waters of the South China Sea, where Beijing and Manila dispute islands and atolls.
“Marcos Jr. was looking for a good relationship with the US and China when he came to power (last June), but Beijing’s ruthless stance in the South China Sea has forced him to look to the Americans. The Chinese have not made a single concession”, Renato de Castro, professor of Political Science at the University of La Salle, told EFE.
Harmony of the Army with the US
The cooling of relations between the Philippines and the US during the Duterte years was also seen as a historical anomaly for the high command of the Philippine Army, whose military equipment, although outdated, was always American.
During the Cold War, with Ferdinand Marcos (1965-1986) in power, the father of the current head of state, the Philippines was one of Washington’s most faithful allies in the region.
Since then, both armies have exchanged knowledge in various joint maneuvers, with the military high command feeling very close to the US Army, according to experts.
In addition, the military establishment is wary of China, especially since in 2012 it invaded Lower Masinloc, an atoll located in Philippine territorial waters that Beijing appropriated as part of its “historic claims” in the South China Sea, after which the Beijing’s expansionist ambitions have been on the rise.
Public opinion, also on the US side
“As much as Duterte tried to distance himself from Washington, the economic, political and security affairs of the Philippines are tied to the US, given the historical ties between the two countries,” says Philippine academic Felipe Salvosa, without forgetting the context of the American occupation of the Philippines between 1898 and 1946.
Salvosa believes that the strategic dilemma between China and the US was doomed to fall on the US side due to the “solid support” of the Philippine public opinion towards Washington.
The Filipino diaspora in the US, where there are more than 4.2 million residents from the Asian archipelago, as well as common cultural ties and a close idiosyncrasy, are several of the reasons that explain the support of Filipinos for its historical ally.
The polls illustrate the consonance: according to a 2022 Pule Asia survey, 89% of Filipinos trust the US, while only one in three Filipinos (33%) trust China.
This Filipino support for the US made Duterte recoil at the end of his term and, after repeatedly threatening to tear up a 1999 defense agreement with Washington, he timidly approached the North American country, also motivated by the lack of concessions from Beijing in the territorial conflict.
“I think Marcos is decisively putting an end to the pro-China stance,” says Salvosa, who thinks that the equidistance that Marcos Jr. was seeking “has definitely leaned towards the US.”
The borders with Taiwan
But the US inclination may have its red lines:
The Philippines announced last week the four new military bases in the archipelago to which US troops will have access (bringing the total to nine), under its renewed Defense agreement, one of them on the northern peak of the archipelago , about 400 kilometers from Taiwan, while another is near the islands that it disputes with Beijing.
US access to these strategic bases, especially the one next to Taiwan, a self-governing island that Beijing has not ruled out invading and that Washington would in principle defend, worries part of the Philippine political class.
Even Senator Imee Marcos, the president’s sister, recently asked the upper house: “Why are the new military bases just a stone’s throw from Taiwan?”
“Gentlemen, what is our fight with Taiwan?” Imee Marcos asked, expressing the fear of many that the Philippines would be involved in an armed conflict if China invaded the island, which it considers part of its territory.