Vitoria/Madrid (EFE).- The CIS wins the PSE in Euskadi, with EH Bildu in second place and the PNV third.
In its latest poll, the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) gives the PSE-EE as the most voted party in the general elections on July 23.
Followed by EH Bildu, which maintains the upward trend of the last elections, and with the PNV as the third force with the most votes, losing in voting intentions.
The Socialists would obtain between 4 and 7 deputies (now they have 4).
The sovereignists would oscillate between 3 and 6 seats (now they also have 4).
The nationalists would go from the current 6 to have a representation of between 3 and 5 deputies.
For its part, Sumar would retain the 3 seats that Ahal Dugu-Podemos now has and the PP would rise from 1 to 2, according to this poll.
Another poll gave the PNV the winner
This survey differs from the one published this week by the Basque Government.
He gave the PNV as the winner, but pointed to a triple tie to 5 seats between the jeltzales, EH Bildu and the PSE.
Both polls agree that Vox would not have enough support to obtain a deputy for Álava.
By territories and according to the CIS, in Bizkaia the PSE would win with 2-3 seats, followed by the PNV with 2 and EH Bildu with 1-2, while Sumar and PP would win 1 representative each.
In Gipuzkoa, the CIS places EH Bildu as the force with the most votes with 2-3 seats, the PNV and PSE would follow with between 1 and 2 deputies each, Sumar would retain its seat and the PP would continue to obtain none.
Finally, the CIS once again gives the PSE the winner in Álava, which would have between 1 and 2 contested and questions whether both PNV and Bildu win seats: it gives both a range of between 0 and 1. PP and Sumar would win their respective seats .
In Spain as a whole, the PP would win
In Spain as a whole, the CIS concedes victory for the first time in this legislature to the PP, which would win between 122 and 140 seats
Although a collapse of Vox, which would lose almost half of its deputies, would prevent them from governing together.
The PSOE would move in a range of between 115 and 135 deputies.
He could retain the government with the support of Sumar, who would have between 43 and 50 seats.
In this way, the highest result of PP and Vox (with between 21 and 29 seats) would place them at 169 seats, 7 away from the absolute majority.
The PSOE and Sumar would easily overcome this barrier thanks to the 185 seats that they would gather if the best result of their respective forks is taken into account.
Another key to this macro-sounding is that the post-electoral scenario could not guarantee governance for either of the two main parties.
This would lead to an electoral repetition like those of 2016 and 2019.
And this because if the lowest forks of the PSOE and Sumar are taken into account, with 158 seats, they would not reach 176 of the absolute majority even with the help of ERC, EH-Bildu, PNV, BNG and the CUP, by remaining in 172 representatives in the chamber.
The survey was made from 29,201 interviews carried out between June 8 and 27, in full negotiation of the regional and local governance pacts between PP and Vox.
Thus, it presents an open panorama due to the breadth of the results ranges, up to 18 seats in the case of the PP. EFE