Zaragoza (EFE).- With an estimate of four seats in Aragon, the pre-election survey of the 28M elections prepared by the CIS puts in the hands of España Vaciada, the coalition of Teruel Existe and Aragón Existe, the key to governability in community.
The support of the formation of Tomás Guitarte would be necessary so that, added to that of the PP and Vox, the popular Jorge Azcón could be president, but they would also be so that the quadripartite led by the socialist Javier Lambán could be reissued.
In this way, the CIS estimates that the PP would win the elections with 36.2% of the votes and between 24 and 28 seats, compared to the 16 it currently has.
According to the survey, Ciudadanos would disappear from the Aragonese Parliament, in which the absolute majority is set at 34 deputies, so Vox’s support for the investiture would not be enough for the PP.
The CIS grants the far-right party 7.3% of the vote and between 3 seats (those it now has) and 5, which in the best of cases for both formations add up to 33.
With the most optimistic scenarios for the members of the quadripartite, the PSOE could indeed govern again. The CIS gives him a vote estimate of 31.1% and between 24 (those he now has) and 26 seats.
Fall of Podemos
One of its current partners, Podemos, would drop from its current five seats to three, with 6.4% of the votes, while another of them, CHA, would obtain between two and four compared to its current three, with 5, 5% of the votes, and the PAR sees how its representation is in danger, since the CIS gives it between zero and one with 1.7% of the ballots.
For this reason, if the members of the quadripartite all added up their best scenario (26+3+4+1) they could reedit the pact, but according to the survey, the support of the four seats granted to España Vaciada with 3.4 could be necessary. % of votes.
The PP, in its best scenario of 28 seats, would not add the 34 of the absolute majority with the four of Aragón Existe.
Izquierda Unida would maintain its deputy with a voting intention of 4.2%, while Ciudadanos disappears from the political map and would lose its current twelve seats by obtaining only 1.3% of the votes