Francisco Tomás-Valiente |
Madrid (EFE) ruled the country.
In addition, the difference in favor of the winner of the locals almost always increased in the generals.
The pattern is constant both in the era of bipartisanship and in the stage that includes new formations, such as Unidas Podemos, Ciudadanos or Vox.
The exception of 2007
Only on one occasion did the result of a municipal election not be repeated in a general one: it was in the 2007 municipal elections, when the result was almost a draw, and then, in 2008, the Socialists were clearly victorious and remained in the central government.
In the rest of the history of democracy, the winner of the municipal elections always repeated victory in the general elections and governed.
This was the case with the UCD in the first local elections in and, later, with the Socialists during their strong hegemony in the 1980s.
Already in 1995 the end of the cycle was warned, because the PP won the municipal ones, which brought forward its victory in 1996. The coincidence can also be observed in the local ones of 1999 and the general ones of 2000, both with a popular majority.
The same has happened in the last twenty years, with the only exception cited.
Even greater advantage in the generals
In addition, the difference registered in the local elections between the two parties that competed for the post, PSOE and PP, tended to increase, in favor of the winner, in the immediately following general elections.
Or, what is the same, the winner in the locals almost always improves his advantage in the generals.
And so, in the 2003 municipal elections, the PSOE led the PP by a scant half a percentage point which, already in the 2004 general elections, became almost five points in favor of the Socialists.
The pattern was repeated in the 2011 elections, when the advantage of almost ten points in the municipal elections that the PP achieved became more than fifteen points in its favor in the general elections in November, and also in 2015.
That year (2015), the PP led the PSOE by about two points in the municipal elections and, later, took more than six points from the Socialists in the general elections, a difference that became greater in 2016, when the second call for elections led the popular to an advantage of 11% over the PSOE.
In 2019, the PSOE led the PP by seven percentage points in the municipal elections and, later, in the general elections, it took twelve points from it, which were reduced to eight when, in the November general elections, the PSOE maintained its result but the PP grouped the conservative suffrage subtracting Ciudadanos.
The winner of the municipal rules
Regarding the improvement for the winner of the municipal elections in the general elections, it should also be noted that, in the local elections of 1989 and 1993, the PSOE, winner of the municipal and general elections, maintained the same percentage of votes, while the PP reduced differences in the generals of 1993.
Likewise, the victory in the municipal elections of 1995 in favor of the PP was reproduced, but by a narrower margin, in 1996, in the general elections.
Beyond these variations, the pattern is repeated with all its characteristics.
The truth is that the winner of the municipal elections was practically always the party that managed to govern after the immediately subsequent general elections, and this regardless of the result between blocks, which began to be a determining factor from 2014 and 2016, when the implementation of Unidas Podemos, Ciudadanos and, later, VOX.
The following table shows the winning parties in the municipal and general elections since 1979, and the percentage of votes they achieved: