The moment of truth, electorally speaking, has arrived in Spanish politics. The 28M is the starting point of a trip that will end in December with the general elections. The PSOE of Pedro Sánchez has an exam ahead of him that will measure, above all, his resistance after little more than three years of management from the Government. The PP will test the potential of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who faces his first test at the polls on a state scale. The CIS barometer of May 22 gave the Socialists a slim advantage: only two points.
Both parties will depend to a large extent on the results of Podemos and Vox, respectively, because these elections will also test the state of health of the left-right blocks in Spain.
Here’s a rundown of what’s at stake, community by community, in alphabetical order:
Andalusia
Without regional elections, the interest in Andalusia lies in the municipal duel that will be disputed by the PSOE and the PP after the absolute majority achieved by Juanma Moreno in June last year.
The Socialists yearn for recovery in town halls and councils, but they will not have it easy. The case of the kidnapping of a councilor from Maracena, in Granada, which has implicated the party’s Organization secretary, is a jug of cold water. The popular ones want to give a coup de effect by taking over the Mayor of Seville.
Aragon
A dozen formations will fight to enter the Cortes and then participate in the agreements that give rise to a new Government. The current president and socialist candidate, Javier Lambán, was able to govern these last four years thanks to the pacts. Everything indicates that, if he is able to repeat, he will have to do the same from May 29.
The municipal highlight is Zaragoza, where the withdrawal of Jorge Azcón to dispute the community to Lambán has opened the stage and fueled the options of the PSOE, who aspires to the Mayor’s Office with Lola Ranera.
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Asturias
A government led by its current president and socialist candidate, Adrián Barbón, or another headed by the PP, a party that has a new candidate, Diego Canga, is the dilemma facing the polls this 28M.
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baleares
The president of the Balearic Islands and candidate for re-election for the PSIB-PSOE, Francina Armengol, is risking her political future on May 28. Opposite, the strength of the PP, which has its first candidate, Marga Prohens. The pacts to the left or to the right will be decisive.
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Canary Islands
Another community very aware of the pacts to the left or to the right. The socialist candidate, Ángel Víctor Torres, president during the last legislature and favorite for victory, aspires to lead a progressive majority.
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cantabria
A community that could recover the PP, for which it will depend on Vox, if the electoral polls are met. Therefore, the 28M will elucidate the future of Miguel Ángel Revilla, its current president and candidate for re-election by the Regionalist Party of Cantabria (PRC).
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Castile and Leon
With the regional elections resolved last year, the Castilian-Leonese will draw the municipal map. The PSOE, which intends to maintain the Mayor’s Office of Valladolid, wants to unseat the PP, the main party at the local level, since it won the 2019 elections despite falling in support.
Castilla la Mancha
The regional elections on May 28 will test the strength of its current president: Emiliano García-Page. Whether he can revalidate the absolute majority that he achieved four years ago is the main political unknown.
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Catalonia
All eyes are on the Barcelona City Council, where the PSC, with Jaume Collboni, has an advantage according to the polls, so it could seize the baton from the current councilor, Ada Colau.
Valencian Community
Maximum equality. The PSPV-PSOE of Ximo Puig, current president, could maintain the autonomous government if the sum with Compromís and Podemos achieves an absolute majority. The PP, which has its first candidate, Carlos Mazón, would have the community’s return to the Presidency close, but it would need Vox to achieve it.
In the Valencia City Council, maximum equality too. Either Joan Ribó (Compromís, current councilor) or María José Catalá (PP) are fighting for victory.
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Estremadura
The PSOE and the PP aspire to victory in elections that will settle the strength of Vox in the territory, the survival capacity of Cs, the resistance of the left that Podemos and IU represent and the surprise factor of regionalist formations.
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Galicia
The main Galician parties (PPdeG, PSdeG and BNG) are at stake much more than the distribution of local power, since there are no regional elections: they will be measuring their forces in a scenario in which Alberto Núñez Feijóo is no longer there. The challenge of his successor at the head of the Xunta, Alfonso Rueda, involves recovering the power lost in the cities and maintaining the Ourense Provincial Council.
Madrid’s community
The PP candidate for the Presidency of the Community of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, will become one of the protagonists of the regional elections on May 28, whether she achieves an absolute majority, since she may be the only one to do so in these elections, as if not, because in such a case it would not have fulfilled an objective that the polls indicate is viable.
Likewise, and although most of the polls suggest that José Luis Martínez Almeida will retain the Mayor’s Office of Madrid, we will have to be attentive to what happens in the capital, since the CIS barometer of May 11 did not rule out a rebound in the left, especially from Más Madrid.
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Murcia
Murcia will decide in the elections on May 28 which government (alone or in coalition) will have the PP candidate, Fernando López Miras, who starts as the favorite.
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Navarra
A government of a progressive nature, predictably led by the socialist candidate, María Chivite, or the return of the center-right, headed by UPN. This is the dilemma in the Navarrese regional elections.
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Basque Country
The PNV has everything to win in the municipal elections that are going to be held in Euskadi, where the regional councils will also be renewed. The Bilbao City Council is not in danger for those of Andoni Ortúzar. However, the polls predict the growth of EH Bildu, which will be crucial for the regional elections next year.
The Rioja
One of the communities that could be closest to the political overturn, according to the polls. The socialist Concha Andreu is running for re-election, the PP would be on the rise and her intentions would be in danger.
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Ceuta and melilla
The 28M elections will also be noticed in Ceuta and Melilla, where the shadow of alleged fraud in sending votes by mail hangs.
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