Madrid (EFE) while it places average inflation for the year between 4% and 4.3% and the unemployment rate at 12.7%.
These are some of the data included in the study entitled “Financial Observatory and Economic Keys”, corresponding to the first four-month period of 2023 and in which the public deficit for the current year is expected to stand at 4.4% and the public debt at 113%.
The president of the Financial Commission, Antonio Pedraza, has made an “optimistic” summary of the report and has recognized that this year 2023 awakens “very well” and with “very positive” data when compared with the closest environment.
In his opinion, “this robust growth” is expected to continue in the first half of the year due to the effects of tourism and exports, something “very positive” taking into account that many national and international organizations “expected negative growth” in the first two quarters and the situation “has been reversed”.
A second semester of “more concerns”
However, a second semester of “more concerns” and with “many unknowns” is expected, including the reduction of the family savings pool, the drop in domestic demand, the possible brake on tourism, the consequences of the drought or the increase in the price of money, something that directly affects the real estate and construction sectors.
Pedraza has referred to the agreement reached by the social agents as an “important milestone” that will help to avoid second-round effects, although “the deflating nature of fuel and energy is also having an influence.”
On European funds, he has insisted that they are an “incredible opportunity” and have to help the economy grow “in a considerable way.”
The president of the CGE, Valentín Pich, also spoke at the event, insisting that Spain “remains the only one of the four large economies in the Eurozone that has not recovered the levels prior to March 2020”, although at his judgment “the growth data for the second quarter will probably already place the level of GDP above the level prior to the pandemic.”
For his part, the director of the CGE Research Service, Salvador Marín, pointed out that the advanced indices of the economy “give us one of lime and another of sand”, since there is a “good behavior” in the energy field and of Spanish investment abroad, but the manufacturing PMI “has not yet started” and the freight price has not been resolved “completely”.
Public debt or unemployment press negatively
He has recognized that some macroeconomic indices are “in a better situation within the European context in the short term”, although he has focused on “classic” uncertainties such as public debt, the deficit and unemployment, indicators that in his opinion “are putting pressure on negatively in the medium and long term”.
Added to this is “consumer confidence”, which “is not helping to completely clear up possible doubts in the future”, he pointed out.
One of the coordinators of the Observatory, Montserrat Casanova, has referred to the “bullish behavior” of the stock markets, because 2022 was a “terrible” year for the financial markets and also because the evolution of the economy has been “better than expected”. expected”.
Regarding interest rates, he has said that it is possible that they will continue to rise as long as inflation is not subdued, which in April rose to 7% in the euro area, although he appreciates “greater prudence on the part of central banks” that it has materialized “in slower rate rises so as not to threaten financial stability.”