The next regional elections in the Valencian Community will arouse national interest. On May 28, the results of the left and right blocs will be very even, according to the polls. The PSPV-PSOE of Ximo Puig, current president, could maintain the autonomous government if the sum with Compromís and Podemos achieves an absolute majority. The PP, which has its first candidate, Carlos Mazón, would have the community’s return to the Presidency close, but it would need Vox to achieve it.
Here are some facts:
A total of 3,731,958 voters (including those residing abroad) are called to the polls. Valencia is the province with the most voters, 1,997,365 specifically. Alicante follows with 1,304,361. Castellón has 430,232, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics (INE).
The decree convoking the elections sets the number of deputies that the citizens will elect, which will be 99. The distribution by constituencies, which are the three provinces, is made according to the population. Valencia will contribute 40; Alicante, 35; and Castellón, 24.
To do the counting, the system established by the Valencian electoral law is followed, whose first rule is that formations that do not exceed 5% of the votes cast in the entire community may not enter Les Corts. The rest of the process follows the D’Hont model of the Organic Law of the General Electoral Regime (LOREG).
2019 results and 28M prospects
In 2019, the last regional elections, the PSPV achieved victory and 27 seats. The sum with the 17 from Compromís (the fourth most voted political force) and the 8 from Unides Podem (sixth) gave Ximo Puig the absolute majority (which stands at 50 seats) necessary to be president.
The PP was second (19 seats), closely followed by Cs (18). Vox was the fifth most voted party and reached 10 deputies.
Electoral polls published by various media predict a very even result between PSPV and PP. The barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), published on May 11, gave the Socialist Party 29% of the votes and between 30 and 34 seats, and the PP, 30.7% of the ballots and between 31 and 36 seats.
Whatever the outcome, both socialists and popular will need other formations to reach the Generalitat Valenciana. Compromís, with Joan Baldoví as the new candidate, wants to be decisive so that the progressive government continues. The CIS anticipates that it will achieve between 15 and 19 deputies. Podemos would fall in the elections and would be around 2-5 parliamentarians.
Vox will be key in the supposed alliance with the PP thanks to its hypothetical 8-12 seats. Ciudadanos would disappear from Les Corts.