Madrid (EFE) the conclusions left by the electoral polls published this Sunday, the one before 28M.
The PP will be around 31.7% of the votes in the elections to the Valencian Parliament next Sunday, according to the 40dB poll for El País and La Ser, and will be followed by the PSOE with 25.6%, Compromís with 17, 4%, Vox with 13.3% and UP with 5.2%, slightly above the minimum bar of 5% to obtain seats.
This barrier could be the key to see which bloc prevails, since if UP overcomes it it would obtain 5 seats, which added to the 18 that Compromís could reach and the 27 of the PSOE would reach 50, an absolute majority that would be the basis for that a Botanic pact can be reissued.
On the contrary, if UP does not reach 5%, the PP and Vox could reach more than half of the 99 seats in Parliament, as predicted by another poll published this Sunday, that of IMOP-Insights for El Confidencial, which gives to the PP 32.8% of the votes and to Vox 14.1%.
According to that survey, the PSOE will remain at 25.5%, Compromís at 18.3% and UP at 4.6%, close to the bar but outside Parliament, like Cs with 1.6%.
For the Assembly of Madrid, with 135 seats at stake, 40dB predicts between 66 and 69 for the PP with 46.8%, above the between 26 and 28 of Más Madrid with 18.8%, the 25 or 26 of the PSOE with 17.6% and the 11 or 12 of Vox with 8.4%.
Similarly to the Valencian case, the result of the purple coalition is key, since the forecast for Podemos-IU-AV in Madrid is 4.9% and also for this parliament there is a minimum bar of 5%, so if it reached that percentage it would get 7 seats and if not, none.
Other polls this Sunday, the penultimate day on which their publication is allowed, have focused on the municipal elections in some large cities, such as one by GAD3 for ABC that predicts that the PP can obtain a majority of councilors in Malaga, by reaching 49.5% of the votes, and that it would touch that majority without requiring agreements also in Santander, with 45.3%.
The PP would also be the party with the most votes, but without reaching a direct majority for the mayoralty, in Oviedo, with 44.2%; in Logroño, with 41.3%; in Murcia, with 42.7%, and in Cartagena, with 30.1%, although in this case the first place is in a technical tie, since GAD3 believes that Movimiento Ciudadano (MC), the Cartagena cantonal party, will have 28.3%.
In Gijón, both the PSOE with 31.6% and Foro Asturias with 22.3% will surpass the PP, with 19.1%, according to that survey, while another survey published this Sunday, that of Sigma Dos for El World, also foresees a victory for the PSOE in Seville.
With 38.1% the Socialists would win in the Andalusian capital, leaving the PP at 36.1%, Vox 9.4%, Con Andalucía 8.3%, Adelante 4.1% and the 2% to Citizens.
In Barcelona, according to Sigma Dos, the Socialists will also win: PSC, 21.3%; Barcelona in Comú, 20.8%; Together, 19.1%; CKD, 14.7%; PP, 8.5%; and without reaching the minimum bar or Vox, 4.6%; neither Cs, 2.6%, nor the CUP.