Madrid (EFE).- The Spanish Government maintains that the country’s economy will grow 2.1% this year, a forecast higher than those published by private analysts, public entities and international organizations that place growth for Spain in 2023 below 2 %.
This is stated in the macroeconomic table included in the update of the stability program sent this Friday to Brussels, with which the Spanish Government estimates that it will be able to lower the public deficit next year to 3% of GDP, the year in which it calculates that the economy it will grow 2.4% and the unemployment rate will close at 10.9%.
According to the note sent by the Ministries of Economic Affairs and Finance, the macro chart has been endorsed by the Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), although this institution expects economic progress to remain at 1.6% this anus.
The unemployment rate will also continue to decline
The Government of Spain also maintains that the unemployment rate will close this year at 12.2% and that it will continue to decline in the coming years until it remains below 10% in 2026, the period (2023-2026) in which the European country will create 1.1 million jobs.
According to the document, the measures taken to curb the rise in energy prices caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine will facilitate the gradual return of inflation to its medium-term level.
In this context of price rise containment, the new macroeconomic framework forecasts that domestic demand will be the main driver of growth this year, especially household consumption, with an estimated growth forecast of 2.1% sustained mainly for the good evolution of employment.
The moderation of inflation will help improve the economy
In addition, the moderation of inflation will improve business competitiveness, which will be reflected in gains in the market share of exports.
The foreign sector will maintain a slightly positive contribution to growth during the forecast period, with an increase in exports of 1.5% this year and 2.5% in 2024.
Likewise, the debt will maintain its reduction path after the decrease of five points last year, to absorb the impact of the pandemic and stand below 110% of GDP in 2024, one year ahead of schedule.
In addition, the Spanish regions maintain a deficit target of 0.3% of GDP in 2023, within the 3.9% forecast for the administrations as a whole, but they are given a greater fiscal margin for 2024, since compared to the surplus From the 0.2% foreseen in the previous stability programme, a budgetary balance target of 0% is now indicated, which means two tenths of a margin.
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