Geneva (EFE) turmoil in financial markets, according to estimates announced today by the World Trade Organization (WTO).
The evolution of trade between countries will be slow despite the fact that GDP forecasts for 2023 have improved in recent months (+2.4%), although uncertainties have clouded the horizon and have denied the most optimistic forecasts.
As a result, both trade and GDP in 2023 will be below their averages of 2.6% and 2.7% growth, respectively, in the last twelve years.
The organization took the opportunity to recall that trade is a resilience force for the world economy, which is why governments must avoid the fragmentation of trade, as well as lift barriers to imports and exports.
Already the 2.7% growth of trade last year was lower than what economists had calculated and this was mainly a consequence of the dismal results of the October-December quarter, affected by the increase in the price of basic products, policies more severe monetary measures to contain inflation and the resurgence of covid in China.
This latest episode of the pandemic disrupted production and trade with China, which later decided to end that stage, lift all anti-covid measures and reopen its economy to the world.
Better than expected growth
In 2023, the estimated growth of 1.7% in international trade is, however, better than expected, precisely thanks to the foreseeable increase in demand for consumer goods in China, once the pandemic is behind us.
The chief economist of the WHO, Ralph Ossa, said on the other hand that the rises in interest rates in the largest economies have exposed deficiencies in the banking systems that, if not corrected, may lead to greater financial instability, and that governments and regulatory bodies must be on alert in the coming months.
All these factors make the forecasts for 2024 more uncertain than usual. For now, experts consider that world trade could pick up to 3.2% and that GDP could progress by 2.6%.