Vigo/Oviedo (EFE).- The Asturian economy will grow by 0.9 percent this year, four tenths less than the national average, which will still not be enough to recover pre-pandemic levels, according to forecasts released this Monday by Funcas.
Funcas predicts that seven autonomous communities will still remain below pre-pandemic levels this year, including Asturias, which would remain at 1.2 percent of said objective.
However, the Principality could reduce its unemployment rate this year by two points, to 12.3 percent, below the country’s average.
The report points out that Asturias is one of the communities that has advanced the most in recent years in terms of per capita income in relation to the Spanish average, but its growth this year will be lower than the average due to the loss of the population of work.
The demographic and structural characteristics, adds the study, place the Principality in an intermediate place in terms of its ability to benefit from the current situation, with an industry that is “very oriented towards semi-manufactures, a sector that will not be the most expansive this year ” and with a “little weight of international tourism”.
On the other hand, construction could make a high contribution to growth compared to other regions, “as anticipated by the strong growth in tenders and, to a lesser extent, in new construction permits.”
As for services, the Asturian economy could benefit from the investment boost derived from European funds due to the weight of those with higher qualifications.
10 communities will recover the pre-pandemic level
For the country as a whole, the study concludes that the Spanish economy as a whole and 10 autonomous communities will recover or exceed their GDP figures this year prior to the covid pandemic, with Castilla-La Mancha and Navarra at the forefront, while the furthest away from that objective would be the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands.
The economic forecasts of the autonomous communities for 2023, presented in Vigo by the general director of Funcas, Carlos Ocaña, and the entity’s Director of Economic Affairs and Statistics, Raymond Torres, announce GDP growth for the entire country for this year 1.3%, which will exceed the Balearic Islands (3.3%), the Canary Islands (2.2%), Catalonia, Madrid, Navarra and the Basque Country (1.4% in all four cases).
Andalusia will grow the same as the average (1.3%) and Galicia (1.2%), Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, the Valencian Community and Extremadura (1.0%), Aragón, Asturias and Murcia (0.9%), Cantabria and La Rioja (0.8%).
Thus, all the communities will continue to grow after a 2022 financial year in which the forecast -still is in the absence of official information- is that the Spanish GDP will increase by 5.5%, with the Balearic Islands (12.0%) and the Canary Islands (10 .0%) well above the average, a long way from Madrid, Navarra and the Basque Country (5.7%).
The Valencian Community will have finished the previous year at the same 5.5% of the average and Andalusia and Catalonia (5.4%), Aragon and Murcia (5.0%), Galicia and La Rioja (4.6%) will remain below. %), Castilla-La Mancha (4.3%), Asturias (4.2%), Extremadura (4.0%), Cantabria (3.9%) and Castilla y León (3.1%).
With these variations, only five communities will have exceeded their GDP prior to the pandemic (2019) by 2022: Castilla-La Mancha (0.8% above), Navarra (0.3%), Murcia (0.2%), Aragon (0.1%) and Galicia (0.0%), while the Balearic Islands will be 4.8% below and the Canary Islands 4.7%.
On the other hand, the forecast is that in 2023 Spain will reach the pre-pandemic GDP and that this figure will be surpassed by Castilla-La Mancha (1.8% more), Navarra (1.7%), Galicia (1.2%), Murcia and Aragon (1.1%), the Basque Country (1.0%), Madrid (0.5%), La Rioja and Andalusia (0.4%) and the Valencian Community (0.2%).
The Canary Islands will continue to be 2.7% below and the Balearic Islands 1.7%, Asturias will remain at 1.2%, Cantabria, Castilla y León and Catalonia at 0.9% and Extremadura at only 0.4%. .
2022, the year of recovery
The general director of Funcas has affirmed that 2022 “was the year of recovery”, with a growth that he has described as “extremely high” and that it has been distributed territorially with differences that have become “significant” and that “have to do with with the productive structure” of each community.
Ocaña explained that there have been three factors that have pushed the recovery, the most important “by far” the return of tourism, along with exports, which have grown by more than 20% as a whole, and services, which have also grown “a lot”.
By 2023, growth will be less” and “there will be a significant slowdown”, with “much weaker” growth that will be driven above all by European funds and to a lesser extent by the return of international tourism and , in some communities, by the automobile sector. EFE