Santa Cruz de Tenerife (EFE).- The climate projections for the Canary Islands for the remainder of the century predict, in the most unfavorable scenario, an increase of up to 4.5 degrees in maximum daytime temperatures, a greater number of tropical nights, fewer episodes of extreme heat but of longer duration and a decrease of up to 30% in rainfall in a good part of the territory of the archipelago.
They are part of the climate projections for the islands in the remainder of the 21st century that the Ministry of Ecological Transition, Fight against Climate Change and Territorial Planning of the Government of the Canary Islands has obtained thanks to the work carried out by the Earth Observation Group and of the Atmosphere-DROP.
The regional councilor responsible for the area, José Antonio Valbuena, highlighted in a note that these results are the result of a three-year agreement signed by his department with the University of La Laguna, whose budget amounted to 300,000 euros from the regional accounts.
Valbuena explained that this publication is presented in an open format with a resolution of 3×3 kilometer grids, using the mesoscale model for climate change scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
“It is essential that public administrations know the climate scenarios that we are going to face in the coming years to adequately plan adaptation and mitigation actions in the different points of the archipelago, always based on the knowledge and work of the Canary Islands universities” , has added the counselor.
Among other conclusions, the projections drawn from this project determine that daily minimum temperatures could rise, on average, between 1 and 3 degrees by the end of the century in the most unfavorable scenario.
Under these circumstances, an increase in the number of tropical nights would also be foreseeable, that is, those in which the minimum temperature does not drop below 20 degrees.
In the worst case scenario, said increase will be 45 days on average for the entire archipelago, with the highest values being found in the eastern islands and in coastal areas.
Another outstanding value is that of the maximum daily temperatures, which could rise to around 4.5 degrees in high areas of the islands by the end of the century in the most unfavorable scenario.
Another parameter that would be modified by this value would be that of the hot episodes, and these projections show that the number of extreme heat episodes decreases, but the duration of these phenomena will be longer.
With regard to rainfall, there is a greater dispersion in terms of data but everything points to a global decrease in annual rainfall, with the highest areas of the islands being the most affected.
It is estimated that, in the worst case, the decrease could be around 30% by the end of the century in a good part of the territory of the archipelago.
The different simulations carried out coincide in the drop in the number of days with precipitation, both weak and heavy rains, which will contribute to the increase in the risk of drought.
All these variations in temperatures and rainfall will have their effect on other aspects such as soil moisture, relative air humidity, evapotranspiration, aridity of the terrain and the season of forest fires, adds the Ministry. EFE
