Madrid (EFE) of high inflation and rising interest rates.
In its economic report for February, to which EFE has had access, the employers’ association points out, however, that great uncertainty continues to exist “with clear downside risks, although the recession scenario seems to be dissipating.”
This is a scenario of economic slowdown in which CEOE expects household consumption growth to slow to 0.9% and investment growth to moderate to 2%.
According to the report, of the 1.3% GDP increase in 2023, domestic demand (consumption and investment) will contribute 1.6 points, while foreign demand (exports and imports) will subtract 0.3 points.
With regard to the labor market, CEOE forecasts point to a notable moderation in job creation this year, since it expects that the employed in terms of the Active Population Survey (EPA) will grow by around 1%, after having grown 3.1% in 2022.
For the unemployment rate, he predicts that it will remain at a level similar to that reached in 2022, 12.9%, one tenth more than his previous forecasts.
Regarding inflation, it stands out that it has accelerated punctually in January, but that it is expected to continue its downward path during 2023, although it does not change its forecast for 2023, which it maintains at an average annual rate of 4.2%.
He is more concerned about the evolution of underlying inflation (excluding energy and unprocessed food) for which he forecasts an annual average of 5.4%.