Seville, (EFE).- The execution of the European Next Generation funds, which will reach cruising speed this year, and the recovery of international tourism will be the two pillars on which the Andalusian economy will rely to grow in 2023 by 1, 4%, according to the forecasts of the Economic Observatory of Andalusia (OEA).
At a press conference to present the forecasts and the closing of the year 2022, its president, Francisco Ferraro, explained that Andalusia, like the Spanish economy, is in a process of slowing down growth after having closed 2022 with better forecasts of initially shuffled, with GDP growth of 5.2%, three tenths less than Spain.
He has ruled out a recession this year and has forecast growth of 2.3% for the Andalusian economy in 2024.
According to OEA forecasts, starting next summer the situation will improve due to the impact that the recovery of international tourism may have, since after the pandemic national tourism has recovered but not completely that of foreigners, and this may be positive. for its “multiplier effects on the economy,” according to Ferraro.
Promotion of the public sector
Furthermore, Pablo de Olavide University (UPO) professor Manuel Hidalgo has pointed out that the cruising speed deployment of EU Nex Generation funds for post-pandemic recovery may have a one-point growth effect on the Andalusian economy this year and one and a half points in the Spanish economy.
In this sense, he has indicated that up to now some 30,000 million of Next Generation funds have been mobilized in Spain and some 12,000 million have been executed and in Andalusia there have been some 1,500 million, although he has trusted that the rate of execution and have a significant impact on GDP.
This means that the impulse of the Andalusian economy in 2023 will come from the hand of the public sector thanks to the European aid that will drive investment in infrastructure, since a brake on private consumption is expected due to the reduction in purchasing power due to to the rise in prices and interest rates, Hidalgo has exposed.
With these economic forecasts, there will be little progress in employment and in the unemployment rate, which will drop a few tenths of the 19% it is currently at and the differential of about six points with that of Spain will remain, according to Manuel Hidalgo, who has warned that the positive effects that the labor reform has had on employment in 2023 are already running out.
War, energy and raw materials
In addition, he has pointed out that when a level of employment is reached it is difficult to increase it if economic reforms are not undertaken.
For the Spanish economy, the OEA forecasts that it will grow one tenth more than the Andalusian economy this year, that is, 1.5% due to the high weight that private consumption has in the Andalusian economy and that it suffers from the lower purchasing power as consequence of the rise in prices and interest rates, noted Francisco Ferraro.
These projections are conditioned by a general framework of uncertainty due to the war and the evolution of energy prices and raw materials, .EFE has specified.
