Pamplona (EFE).- Navarra has closed the year 2022 with a GDP growth of 4.3% compared to 2021, which represents an improvement of three tenths compared to the last macroeconomic forecast for the month of September, reported this Friday the Minister of Economy and Finance, Elma Saiz.
For its part, the fourth quarter of 2022 closed with an increase in GDP of 0.8% compared to the previous quarter, three tenths more than the increase registered during the summer period.
This upturn in activity in the last part of the year also clearly improves the forecasts that pointed to a notable weakening of the economy starting in the autumn, the counselor pointed out at a press conference.
According to Saiz, both the data for Navarra and Spain “reveal a more favorable end of the year than expected, which removes the prospects of a technical recession at the start of 2023.”
Various factors that “push” the economy
Among the possible causes of the quarter-on-quarter increase shown by the Navarrese economy, the Minister spoke of the drive in some sectors during the last months of the year.
He specifically alluded to the “upturn in car production after the relief of the serious supply problems that affected the sector last year, which has helped to improve industrial production data, or the dynamism of private consumption in the first Christmas without restrictions since 2020, which has given a breather to activities such as trade”.
In any case, Saiz has warned of signs that point to lower growth for the coming months, such as the cooling off of the real estate market, the decrease in vehicle traffic on the highway, or the slowdown in the rate of job creation.
GDP growth of the Foral Community in 2022, according to data from the Statistics Institute of Navarra-Nastat:
Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4
TOTAL GDP OF NAVARRE
Year-on-year rate (%) 4.5 3.2 3.0
Interquarter rate (%) 0.7 0.5 0.8
TOTAL GDP OF SPAIN
Year-on-year rate (%) 7.8 4.8 2.7
Interquarter rate (%) 2.2 0.2 0.2
The counselor has highlighted that these data for 2022 represent “an improvement in forecasts” and has indicated that the last quarter “has been better than expected”.
“We see that these are positive data that somehow remove those ghosts and voices that pointed to a possible technical recession” in Navarra, he stated.
Saiz has considered that these “are data that show that the Navarrese economy continues to show strength, it continues to be an economy that will continue to grow, although it will do so in a more moderate way.”
Forecasts for 2023
The counselor has commented in this sense that the Government of Navarra is facing 2023 with more moderate growth prospects. Along these lines, the macroeconomic table shows GDP growth for Navarra of 1.4%, in line with the most recent projections from institutions such as Laboral Kutxa and Hispalink.
For the counselor, “geopolitical instability, energy markets and the consequences of the transition to a greener economy, inflation and monetary policy, or the reopening of the Chinese economy, pose a macroeconomic scenario with questions.”
Among these questions, Saiz has referred to the consequences of the war in Ukraine or the tensions in other regions of the world, such as Brazil, Peru or Taiwan.
Regarding inflation, he said, from the Government of Navarra it is expected that it will continue to moderate during 2023, although “a possible rise in prices must not be ruled out to the extent that some of the aforementioned risks materialize.”
Finally, and despite the prevailing uncertainties, the Minister has shown her confidence in “that the Navarrese economy continues to grow and create jobs”.